In April, Ukraine expects the first decision of the Stockholm arbitration on the claim of "Naftogaz" to "Gazprom" on gas sales contract from year 2009, around which the main passions run high: the amount of the claim is about $17 billion. Here the situation is not clearly advantageous for any of the parties. However, if you take into account that the Stockholm arbitration considers not just the spirit and the letter of the contract, but also the market environment and compares correspondence of the contract conditions with changes in the market environment, then the chances of "Naftogaz" to gain some wins (I emphasize, not total win) look more preferable, than of "Gazprom". It is not necessary to be a lawyer or an expert on international arbitrations to having read the text of the contract to conclude that clear asymmetry of the rights and obligations of the parties catches your eye. As well as some questionable things with gas price formula, and with application of the "take or pay" principle, on which the main claim of "Gazprom" to "Naftogaz" is based ("Gazprom" filed a suit against "Naftogaz" in the Stockholm arbitration in June 2016 – Ed.). They say, if you bound yourself to take, so take it. But if you didn't take - then pay. The hole claim is based on that. At the same time, the principle "take or pay" is fixed, but the mechanism of its application is not clarified unlike contracts with Western companies. Therefore, it is not only strong, but also vulnerable side of "Gazprom".

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