There were no stunning pikes of oil prices in the past year, despite the fact that price was volatile. At the beginning of the year it fell below $30 per barrel, but by the end of the year it exceeded $50. But in principle this is the normal behavior of oil prices.
This year, the price range will be slightly narrower. But volatile policy will not be changed, it will be more dynamic. One day the price will rise, it can rise to $60 per barrel, but another day it will drop. But it is unlikely that price will jump to a hundred dollars.
This is only possible in one case - a large-scale military conflict in the Persian Gulf, or on the Arabian Peninsula - in Saudi Arabia. Russia and Iran have been situational working on that. And yet not the first month.
There are surely no economic reasons for rise in oil prices. On the contrary - there are economic reasons for price reduction. For example, on the background of the revival of oil production in the United States that will be also promoted by the policy of the new Administration.
Well, in 2016 the price of oil fluctuated in the corridor of 35 to 56 dollars per barrel. But the average price was about $45. In this context, we can assume that these are low oil prices.
This year the price will rise slightly. But short-term price jumping or falling are not crucial. The general trend now is uncertainty, what is used by speculators. Therefore, there are two opposite tendencies: on the one hand Iran and Russia provoke a large-scale conflict in Saudi Arabia by subversive activities and populist interference in order to undermine it. But on the other hand, the oil market will be influenced by policies of Trump's Administration.
The increase in oil prices on the world market will affect Ukraine through the price rise of petroleum products in the country. We already see it on gas stations. Secondly, it is possible that natural gas prices will increase, because our domestic gas prices depend proportionally on import prices. But this does not mean that the price of gas will rise.
Anyway, we have regulated gas prices. Given general impoverishment of the population, authorities will need to take measures not to allow monopolies to abuse their positions and get maximum revenue from consumers using the fact of global rise in energy prices.
