Germany, France and Italy are the main founder states of the European Union where the upcoming elections are to determine not only new governments, but also a new approach on foreign politics. According to the most recent opinion polls, a change in the approach the European elites have utilized to handle current crises in Europe and on its borders until now is likely to occur. These crises are largely generated by Russian politics. Russia not only unleashed and continues aggression against Ukraine, but also acts with hidden methods in Moldova, the Balkans, southern Caucasus, and also against its closest ally Belarus. In the Balkans there are also interests of the other powerful player – Turkey. It is now not so favorable to Europe and may resort to destabilizing actions in the Balkan countries, which have already a European perspective – Bosnia-and-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro. We can not exclude a situational Russian-Turkish Alliance against the EU in the Balkans.
In Germany, the most influent member state of the European Union, the main contenders of the election to renew the composition of the Parliament, and elect the new Chancellor indeed, are the christian democratic Party CDU of incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel and social democratic SPD led by the former President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz.
From a Central-Eastern European perspective, the situation looks a bit favorable for Angela Merkel: a staunch supporter of Ukraine's territorial integrity with strong ties with the governments of the Baltic States and a current project aimed at improving ties with the conservative political elites of Poland. However, Merkel's CDU, according to long-standing political tradition, will run in coalition with Bavarian CSU, a sister party, with a social-conservative orientation, whose political leadership repeatedly called for a lift of the sanctions that Germany, along with the other countries of the western community, applied on Russia amid the annexation of Crimea.
On the other side of the aisle, Martin Schulz has proven to be a staunch supporter of Ukraine's territorial integrity while serving at the helm of European Parliament. He has also tight political ties with Lithuanian social democrats, who are part of the ruling coalition in Vilnius. Nevertheless, prominent SPD representatives, such as former Vice Chancellor but the current Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs Sigmar Gabriel, are advocates of energy projects aimed at diving Europe and weakening the energy security of Central Eastern Europe, such as Nordstream II. This pipeline project of "Gazprom" has been aimed at isolating important EU member states like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from main supply routes. And the greatest threat it represents for Ukraine. Germany, as one of the major donors of Ukraine in the EU, provides assistance with one hand but can leave the country without $2 billion of annual income in case of realization of "Nord Stream II". Moreover, former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, a prominent SPD representative, holds a high managerial position at Russian state energy major "Gazprom", and helped "Gazprom" with realization of the first two lines of the "Nord Stream", now pushes the following two lines.
According to the most recent opinion polls, Merkel's CDU and Schulz's SPD are toe to toe, with the populist, anti-European Alternative for Germany Party at the third place and the Green Party, a political force openly Ukraine-friendly, likely to obtain seats in the Parliament.
Macron and Renzi challenged by anti-EU Le Pen, Grillo and Salvini
With respect to France, the electoral campaign for the presidential election has already started with the first rallies of the main candidates: the leader of far-right National Movement Marie Le Pen and center-left independent Emmanuel Macron.
From a Central-Eastern European perspective, Marie Le Pen, if elected President, promised to withdraw France from the European Union and proposed a community of sovereign nations to replace the EU. Marie Le Pen has also tight relationships with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and advocates both the lift of sanctions on Russia and the recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia by the International Community.
On the other hand, Emmanuel Macron presented himself as a staunch supporter of the European Dream and the permanence of France within the western community. When serving as the Minister of Economy in the socialist-led government, Macron, who left both the Socialist Party and the ministerial appointment and now runs as an independent, supported Ukraine's territorial integrity and assumed a position on the Ukrainian crisis aligned to the one that former US President Barack Obama and Italian PM Matteo Renzi did share.
According to the most recent surveys, Marie Le Pen is predicted to win the first round of the presidential election. However, Macron is best placed to clinch the final victory in the second round due to his capability to get votes from the moderate wing of both the Socialist Party and center-right Le Républicains: a leaning pro-Russian party whose candidate, François Fillon, has been the protagonist of a scandal tied to employment of his wife as his own assistant in the Parliament with a disproportionately high level of her remuneration.
Another important EU member state that might face a legislative election is Italy, where a caretaker government led by PM Paolo Gentiloni is guiding the country toward a renewal of the parliament. Due to a complex semi-proportional electoral law, the main contenders of the probable election are a coalition of moderates formed by the center-left Democratic Party of former PM Matteo Renzi and the New Center Right on the one hand, and a populist, anti-European coalition of the Five Star Movement, the Northern League and the post-fascist party Brothers of Italy on the other hand.
The Democratic Party supports Ukraine's territorial integrity, and both former PM Renzi and the President of European Socialists in the European Parliament Gianni Pittella have been supportive of a stronger integration of European Union in the name of equality among its member states.
On the other hand, both the Five Star Movement of former comedian Beppe Grillo and the Northern League, led pro-Russian politician Matteo Salvini, advocate Russian occupation of Crimea is legal. Both the Five Star Movement and the Northern League also proposed a lift of sanctions on Russia and introduced legislations in the parliament aimed at accusing Ukraine to be guilty of provoking the war in the Ukrainian eastern regions.
According to recent surveys, the moderate coalition and the populist axis are toe to toe. However, a still deep economic crisis and the serious lack of job opportunities might move both the eldest and the youngest voters to prefer populists and reject the Democratic Party as the symbol of the status quo.
The European Dream in danger due to populism
Analyzing the political situation from a Central-Eastern European perspective, a victory of Merkel in Germany, Macron in France and Renzi in Italy is the best warranty to maintain the European Union staunchly supportive of international law based on the Helsinki-1975, Ukrainian territorial integrity, and the EU Energy Union aimed at diversification, as well as to continue creation of a common European energy market with involvement of such countries as Ukraine, Moldova, Balkan countries.
Another positive scenario for Central Eastern Europe might be a victory of Schulz in Germany, along with Macron's election as France President and Renzi's reelection at the helm of the Italian government, should only the pro-Gazprom fraction within the SPD be balanced through a coalition with the Green Party.
An uncertain scenario would occur should Merkel be confirmed as the Chancellor of Germany and Marie Le Pen or the populist coalition in Italy win their own elections. In such case, political initiatives like France and Italy leaving both European Union and NATO are likely to take place and, with no doubts, weaken the support the western community provided Central Eastern Europe and Ukraine with over the past years.
The worst scenario for Central Eastern Europe would be a victory of SPD in a Germany, Marie Le Pen in France and the populists in Italy: this might lead to the disintegration of the European Union and its replacement with a very nominal community of states governed by a populist rhetoric that would forget about Ukraine's crisis, Russian expansion in Europe, and would avoid the EU to compete in the globalized world of today, which is exposed now to the increasing trend of isolationism after the victory of D. Trump on the elections in the United States.
Matteo Cazzulani
Strategy XXI
@MatteoCazzulani
