WARSAW - Is it just, even in a consolidated democracy as the European Union is, that a very small minority of voters can block a decision regarding the foreign policy of a huge political entity? Of course, it is not. However, this is what is happening in the European Union, when the 1,2% of EU voters -the percentage of those EU voters who casted "nay" votes at a consultative referendum on the Association of Ukraine with the European Union, held in the Netherlands on April 6- complicated the economic integration of Ukraine with the EU market.
In addition to the problem of democratic representation, the European Union also suffers from a problem of cohesion tied to the lack of common policies on highly important issues. For instance, the European Union never harmonized the positions of its 28 member states with respect to immigration, with Western and Southern Europe urging an automatic redistribution of refugees on the one hand, and Central Eastern Europe rejecting this proposal on the other.
Moreover, the European Union is divided with respect to energy issues. Germany, Italy and France have tight energy business with Russia, although the European Commission provided a policy of gas supplies diversification in order to make the European Union less dependent on Russian supplies.
On the contrary, Central Eastern Europe urges a common energy policy of the EU and strongly opposes bilateral energy projects between Russia and some member states of the European Union, such as The Nord Stream-2. The Baltic Pipeline System together with already existing first line of The Nord Stream will pump 110 bcm of Russian natural gas through the seabed of the Baltic Sea - an itinerary that bypasses Poland, the Baltic States and Ukraine - and boost the dependence of the European Union on Russian gas supplies in so doing.
Facing this crisis, the European Union needs a courageous reform in order to act more efficiently by choosing between two paths: regionalization or federating.
The actuality of Pilsudski's project
Regionalization is the easiest path to be realized with respect to the contemporary political situation. It concerns the subdivision of the European Union into regional alliances that may represent the interests of all the regions of Europe more properly than how the European Union does nowadays.
Regionalization of the EU is possible through the realization of Intermarium project, an alliance of countries of Central Eastern Europe located between Russia and Germany, from the Baltic Sea to the Black and Adriatic Seas. Intermarium was a project of the head of Poland in the interwar period, Marshal Jozef Pilsudski, aimed at counterbalancing the imperialistic tendencies of Russia and Germany through the confederation of the independent nations of Central Eastern Europe.
In XXI century, Intermarium was recovered by Poland President Lech Kaczynski on the occasion of Russian military aggression to Georgia in 2008, when he built up a coalition of Poland, the Baltic States and Ukraine to help defend Central Eastern Europe from what he called "the never-ended Russian imperialism".
Nowadays, the idea of Intermarium has been successfully recovered by Poland President Andrzej Duda, who gave continuity to the project of Lech Kaczynski in order to strengthen military and energy security of Central Eastern Europe facing Russian illegal annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas.
Moreover, the countries of Intermarium are deeply committed to projects aimed at boosting energy security in Central Eastern Europe, as the realization of the North-South EU energy corridor from the LNG terminal of Swinoujscie in Poland to the LNG terminal of Krk, in Croatia.
The promotion of Intermarium is also favored by the lack of an assertive role of the United States in Europe, tied to the withdrawal of US foreign policy pivot from Europe to the Asia-Pacific Region and the Western Hemisphere.
De facto, US President Barack Obama has delegated Germany to care about the security of NATO countries in Europe. However, Intermarium could appear more attractive for the next US President because of geographic location and a more pro-American stance than the one Germany demonstrated to have over the last years.
Despite of all advantages, Intermarium risks to fail because of two reasons. On the one hand, a regional alliance of the EU member states of Central Eastern Europe cannot be strong and effective enough without Ukraine, a country that historically and culturally pertains to Europe and is fighting a war on its territory to defend its European perspective.
With this respect, the signals from the countries of Intermarium are not totally encouraging. The Administration of the President of Poland – A. Duda, for instance, risks to be influenced by more nationalist wing of the conservative Right and Justice Party (PiS, the party of President Duda) was supported by that opposes every kind of rapprochement with Ukraine as a vengeance for the tragic massacres occurred during and immediately after World War Two.
On the other hand, Intermarium risks to implode if Russian influence on several "Russia friendly" countries of CEE, such as Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Bilateral energy and economic agreements that Hungary PM Viktor Orban, Czech President Milos Zeman and Slovakia PM Robert Fico reached with Russia are a real problem for the internal political cohesion of Intermarium.
It is worth to underline that among the given "Russian friendly" states of Central Eastern Europe Hungary is the one that opposed Ukraine's European aspirations most loudly. By their turn, The Czech Republic and Slovakia voiced the need to lift the sanctions the European Union applied on Russia over Crimea and Donbas.
The European "Historic compromise" difficult to reach
The second path the European Union could realize is the federation of all EU member states into the United States of Europe. The Federation of United States of Europe should have a lone President of the Union, an Executive of competent European Ministers and a European Parliament, with legislative powers over the national Parliaments of EU member states, composed by MEPs elected according to European -and no more national- party lists.
This path is less realizable than regionalization, but would represent the strongest answer to the euro skeptic and anti-EU parties that oppose both the strengthening of the European Union and Ukraine's Association with the EU, and eventually get financial support from Russia.
However, the realization of the United States of Europe requires an "Historic compromise" between the EU member states that urge a more hawkish position toward Russia and those who want tighter relationship with Moscow.
Perhaps, this "Historic compromise" -"Historic compromise" was the name of the political reproaching the Christian Democracy did with the Communist Party in Italy in the 70's in order to govern the country and defeat political terrorism- will cost the freezing of Ukraine's integration into the Euro Atlantic community.
By resigning from the integration of Ukraine into EU and NATO, Europe would make a strategical mistake that will weaken EU military and energy security. By fighting the Russian army in Donbass, Ukraine is in fact defending not only its territorial integrity, but also the borders of Europe.
Ukraine is also a secure transit state of gas and energy resources the European Union can definitively trust because of the efficiency of Ukrainian Gas Transportation System.
Therefore, Intermarium could become the most immediate way to reform the European Union and push forward a renewed eastern partnership aimed at the integration of Ukraine, Georgia, and eventually Azerbaijan into the Euro Atlantic community.
Matteo Cazzulani
Strategy XXI
@MatteoCazzulani
