The necessity to count on its own force is the lesson that both the European Union and Ukraine will learn from the US Presidential Primaries, the electoral process that both the Democratic and the Republican Party utilize to select their candidates to the Presidency of the United States.
After the first primaries have been held, most of them in some of the most important states, the Democratic Party is likely to nominate former State Secretary Hillary Clinton, whereas Mr. Donald Trump, a New York billionaire, is the likely candidate of the Republican Party.
Mrs. Clinton, who defeated her rival, the Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, in important states such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio, has gained a huge margin of delegates. Therefore, her victory in the democratic primaries is almost sure.
On the Republican side, Mr. Trump emerged as the frontrunner of a very crowded field of candidates by winning in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. However, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, by winning in his own state Texas, Alaska, Utah and Iowa, is still keeping the competition open along with Ohio Governor John Kasich, who won the primaries in its own state, Ohio.
Looking at the situation, it is undoubtable that the historic interest that the United States had had towards Europe over the last half century will further decrease after current US President Barack Obama re-shifted the pivot of US foreign policy from Europe to the Asia/Pacific and the Western Hemisphere.
This is the case if Hillary Clinton, who served as the State Secretary in the first Obama Administration, will become the next President of the United States. Mrs. Clinton has been the executor of the shift of the pivot of US foreign policy from Europe to the Asia/Pacific, in order to counterbalance the rising power of China.
However, Mrs. Clinton demonstrated she has a deep understanding of the situation in Europe when, prior to announce her presidential bid, she stated that it is Russia, and not China, the main threat to the United States on global issues. She also compared Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas to the Anschluss of Czechoslovakia and Austria by the Nazi Germany in the 30's.
The situation could look worst for both the European Union and Ukraine whether Mr. Trump will be elected the next President of the United States. Mr. Trump is worrying Europe not only for his bombastic rhetoric regarding the need for the United States to establish good relationship with Russia -Donald Trump officially praised Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that he knows how to deal with Moscow on global issues- but because he is an isolationist.
In fact, Mr. Trump argues that the United States should improve its economy through a disengagement from global issues and a higher commitment to internal issues. Mr. Trump, who rarely raises global topics during his speeches, believes the United States must close its borders, in order to oppose both illegal immigration and the terrorist threat.
A better vision on global issues than the one of Mr. Trump is the one the other two Republican candidates propose. Senator Cruz argues that the United States must strengthen NATO in order to keep the world safe from terrorism and preserve the values of the western civilization, such as democracy, liberty and human rights. However, Senator Cruz also believes that the United States should assume a less interventionist attitude, in particular in the Middle East.
John Kasich has similar thoughts to the ones of Senator Cruz. He opposes interventionism in the Middle East, but believes that the United States must increase its defense budget. However, Governor Kasich, as well as Donald Trump, does not agree with Senator Cruz about the need to tear down the nuclear agreement that the Obama Administration reached with Iran -which Mrs. Clinton backs too.
Hillary Clinton is the best option for Ukraine
From the Ukrainian point of view, the most favorable presidency the Ukrainians could hope for is a one led by Mrs. Clinton. Although, as the State Secretary of the Obama Administration, she tried to "reset" the relationship between the United States and Russia, Mrs. Clinton has favored sending lethal weapons to Ukraine in order to allow Kyiv to defend its borders from Russian military aggression.
As a senator of the United States, Mrs. Clinton urged to integrate Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, arguing that the United States must be strongly committed to the preservation of democracy, liberty and human rights in Europe by integrating countries of former USSR and the Balkans within the Euro Atlantic community.
A less favorable presidency for Ukraine could be the one of Mr. Cruz. Both before and during the electoral campaign, Senator Cruz said that the United States should intervene to to preserve Ukrainian territorial integrity according to the Memorandum of Budapest, which Russia, one of the signers of the Memorandum, along with the United Kingdom and the United States, has violated with the annexation of Crimea.
Governor Kasich is a favorable candidate for Ukraine too, as he believes that the United States should arm Ukraine and start a strong confrontation with Russia.
The less hopeful scenario for Ukraine is the one of a Trump Administration. Trump said he is not worried about what happens in Ukraine, arguing that the topic is an affair that concerns only Europe, and not the United States.
Matteo Cazzulani
Strategy XXI
@MatteoCazzulani
