According to him, in 2019 the term of the transit contract between Ukraine and Russia expires. On January 1, 2020, Russia, taking advantage of this, can stop transit through Ukraine - this is one of the options. The expert draws attention to the actions of Gazprom in the Stockholm Arbitration and other courts, where it tries to terminate the transit contract ahead of time, which in principle looks strange, since the contract expires in one and a half year. But this is precisely the element of the future crisis scenario to which they are preparing.

"But there is another one, which can happen earlier. Gas weapons work effectively in winter. When the Nord Stream 2 is not yet completed, Russia will seek additional arguments to force Europeans to complete it or give them the necessary permits for completion. I emphasize that the gas crises in 2006 and 2009 stimulated the completion of the first "Nord Stream". Therefore, Russian logic is that one more crisis is needed to say the Europeans in Brussels: "We have long shown you that Ukraine is unreliable transit link. "Of course, now it will not be easy for them to do so. But they can seriously prepare for this. Let's imagine that we have a presidential campaign in winter-spring 2018-2019. The peak of the campaign, the peak of colds, and according to the Russian logic, the next gas crisis will be very just right"- Mykhailo Gonchar said.