- This is not the first pipeline, which Gazprom is trying to build to bypass Ukraine - Mykhailo Gonchar, the president of the Centre for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", says. If you remember, the "South Stream", which had to go through the bottom of the Black Sea from Novorossiysk to the Bulgarian port of Varna, was also in Moscow plans. And where is it? It faded into obvilion.
The "Turkish Stream" is also rather from the category of the Kremlin propaganda actions, but here they at least began to build the first leg of the pipeline. But Russians are very optimistic claiming that gas will flow to Turkey through the bottom of the Black Sea in 2019. Yes, the pipe can be layed. But marine pipeline is not only a pipe, but also many constructions on land, start-and-adjustment stations, because the pipeline will run at high pressure - more than 200 atmospheres.
Please note, that the pipeline has been only started to build on the Russian coast, but not on the Turkish one, because all documents have not yet been approved there.
- Why?
- Part of the route will pass through the European part of Turkey. It is a densely populated area, so it is not so easy to lay the pipeline there. But it is not just a matter. The issue of gas price for Turkey has not yet been settled; Turkey is seeking to get maximum discounts on natural gas from Russia. It is said even that gas for Turkey will be exempted from export duty. That is, the "Turkish Stream" will work on the same scheme as the "Blue Stream". But then Gazprom will not have any profit, though it must earn on something.
- If Russia builds a new pipeline anyway, then what losses will Ukraine have?
- When the first leg is launched, which passes between Russian Anapa and Turkish Black Sea port of Kijikej, then we will lose 11 billion cubic meters of transit gas. This volume of "blue fuel" is pumped now to Turkey through Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. This is one seventh of the total transit, which is about 75-80 billion cubic meters. As to money, then Ukraine will lose 150-200 million USD annually. When Russians lay the second parallel leg, through which they plan to deliver gas to the Balkans, then we will have minus a few bcm of transit gas.
The "Turkish Project" is displeasing for Ukraine, but if it is started operations then the apocalypse will not happen. Another thing is that Russia simultaneously reaches a certain success in the "Nord Stream-2". If these two projects become fully operational, the transit of gas through Ukraine will fall to zero.
But, as for me, the future of the "Turkish Stream" is not as clear as it seems at a first glance. Because Turkey, boosting its realization, actually shoots into own foot. Especially if it builds the second leg of the gas pipeline. Then the TANAP project (Trans-Anatolian Pipeline), which is realised jointly by Turkey and Azerbaijan, and the TAP project (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) will become losers. Because Russian gas from the second leg of the "Turkish Stream" will be pumped to South Italy instead of Azerbaijani gas, and these two streams (TANAP i TAP) will remain idle. Money are buried. And this is a very serious problem for Turkish energy policy.
