Warsaw - A more committed United States to the military security of Europe and a more secure European Union from the Russian military threat is the scenario which is likely to occur whether former Florida Governor Jeb Bush will win the US Presidential bid.
During a trip to Germany, Poland and Estonia on June 10-11-12, Jeb Bush -the son of former US President George H W Bush and the brother of George W Bush, another former US President- made clear that, in case of electoral win, he will reorientate US foreign policy towards a more assertive role aimed to ensure and protect the allies to the United States of Central Eastern Europe from continuative military threats from Russia.
During a public event in Berlin, Jeb Bush, a moderate republican, underlined that the warfare of Russia in Georgia and Ukraine is a demonstration of how aggressive the diplomatic initiative of Russian President Vladimir Putin really is. Therefore, Jeb Bush argued that the behavior of Putin in Central Eastern Europe is going to become more and more dangerous for the security of Europe if nobody won't stop him, as Jeb Bush aims to do in case he will be elected the President of the United States.
Following the statement of Jeb Bush in Berlin, the President Elect of Poland, Andrzej Duda, urged the former Florida Governor to act for a grater commitment of the United States in Central Eastern Europe in case Jeb Bush will win both the republican electoral bid and the Presidential Election.
As the Adviser of Duda for Foreign Politics Krzystof Szczerski reported, Jeb Bush and Duda totally agreed on all the issues they discussed during a bilateral meeting in Warsaw. In particular, the former Florida Governor and the Polish President Elect agreed on the need to reactivate both military and diplomatic cooperation between the United States and Poland.
The partnership between Jeb Bush and President Elect Duda could be the key to solve a situation of military uncertainty in Central Eastern Europe, where member states of both NATO and the European Union are raising concerns because of the lack of any political nor military support from Germany and the United States.
From the point of view of Jeb Bush, the renewal of the commitment of the United States in Central Eastern Europe is tied to the neocon political doctrine. This doctrine urges the United States to be directly active in the promotion of the values of the West -democracy, liberty and human rights- by militarily intervening in order both to defend countries threatened by authoritarian states and to preemptively oppose the strengthening of dictatorships.
The neocon theory originated under the latest years of the Ronald Reagan Administration, when the United States, helped by UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, led to the end of communism in Central and Eastern Europe.
Later, the neocon theory developed under the George W Bush Administration, when the United States, after the 9/11 terroristic attack to World Trade Center, militarily intervened in Afghanistan and Iraq to overthrow a theocratic regime and a dictatorship respectively.
The neocon theory, from which Jeb Bush openly takes inspiration, is based on Liberal Internationalism, a geopolitical doctrine conceived by US President Woodrow Wilson -then followed by the majority of the US Presidents, such as Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W Bush- that urges the United States to promote worldwide democracy, liberty, peace and prosperity as a means to ensure US national security.
From the point of view of Duda, the renewal of the commitment of the United States in Europe is an opportunity to relaunch the role of Poland as both the main ally to the United States within the European Union and the leading country of the Intermarium, a coalition of countries of Central Europe within the European Union.
As he never hided during his electoral campaign, Duda aims to recover the diplomatic initiative of the former Polish President Lech Kaczynski, one of the most far-sighting Heads of State Europe ever had.
Immediately after 2008 Russian military aggression to Georgia, Lech Kaczynski called Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Ukraine to form a coalition in order to contain a further escalation of Russian warfare to Ukraine, the Baltic States and eventually Poland, as de facto in now occurring.
Moreover, Lech Kaczynski strongly endorsed the realization of a US spatial shield in Central Eastern Europe, a project, made of the dislocation of Patriot missiles in Poland and the realization of a radar station in Czech Republic, planed by the George W Bush Administration to defend Europe from ballistic threats.
An historical opportunity for change
By considering the weakness that both the US Presidential Administration of Barack Obama, a democrat, and the European Union are demonstrating facing the Russian warfare in Georgia and Crimea -and the repeated militarily provocations made by the Russian Army on the skies and in the seas of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and the UK- the greater commitment of the United States promised by Jeb Bush could really be the one political initiative that could finally move Putin to stop with his aggressive behavior in Central and Eastern Europe.
In so doing, Jeb Bush can certainly bet not only on Duda, but also on the UK Prime Minister David Cameron. As the first Head of Government of the European Union, Cameron sent UK soldiers to Ukraine to train the Ukrainian Army on how to effectively oppose the Russian invasion.
Jeb Bush, Andrzej Duda and David Cameron are a trio of young politicians with a conservative political orientation who could really relaunch NATO and lead both the United States and the European Union to raise their military capability in order to effectively contain the warfare of Putin.
Therefore, Jeb Bush, Andrzej Duda and David Cameron can pass into history as the heirs of the Reagan-Thatcher tandem and the one of George W Bush-Lech Kaczynski, and start a new era in which the Trans Atlantic Community is united again in order to ensure the national and military security of its member states.
Matteo Cazzulani
Strategy XXI
@MatteoCazzulani
