By his warfare in Central Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Russia is a big threat to the Trans Atlantic Community. However, according to the Administration of the President of the United States, Barack Obama, China and North Korea are bigger threats than Moscow is. On Monday, April 27, the United States and Japan reached an agreement upon new US-Japan defense guidelines that represents a major update in the military relationship of this two countries already tied by a strategic military alliance since the end of World War Two.
According to the agreement, reached in New York City by US State Secretary and US Defense Secretary, John Kerry and Ash Carter respectively, and Japanese Foreign and Defense Ministers, Fumio Kishida and Gen Nakatani respectively, the United States and Japan will strengthen ties on cyber, space, industrial and military programs such as missile defense, peacekeeping operations, humanitarian assistance, international surveillance intelligence, disaster relief and reconnaissance operations as well.
Moreover, the agreement will also lead to the realization of a permanent committee of US and Japanese officials. The committee will coordinate and control in a streamed way all military operations jointly realized by the United States and Japan in the Asia/Pacific and elsewhere in the world.
From the United States' point of view, the guidelines demonstrate the major commitment of the Obama Administration within the Asia/Pacific. This is a strategic choice to shift the commitment of the United States on foreign issues from Europe and the Middle East, and to contain the rise of China on the military, economical and energy domain in so doing.
By strengthening the military alliance with Japan, the United States also aims to counterbalance the nuclear program of North Korea, which represents a serious threat for both the United States and United States' allies in the region, such as South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and, of course, Japan.
From the Japanese point of view, the agreement with the United States dramatically increases the role of Japan on military issues within the Asia/Pacific. According to the guidelines, the Japanese missile defense system is now available to intercept any ballistic attack to the United States from North Korea and, eventually, other countries which represent a growing threat to both Washington and Tokyo, as China does too.
For Japan, the agreement also meets the goals set by Japanese PM, Shinzo Abe, in order to allow Japan to meet its security challenges in East Asia, in particular to counterbalance the rising military power of both China and North Korea.
In addition to the initiatives to counterbalance the military threats within the Asia/Pacific, the Obama Administration was also committed to the strengthening of the defensive structures in Europe.
On Wednesday, April 22, the Polish Ministry of Defense announced that Poland agreed on the realization of a medium-range missile defense system, known as "Vistula", composed by US Patriot missile systems.
The realization of this system, a part of a 10-year defense modernization program that makes Poland one of the first countries to strengthen its defensive structures - as established at the Wales NATO summit - will be completed in 2025 with the dislocation of 5 Patriot batteries and the rotating presence of the US army within the Polish land.
The reinforcement of defensive structures in Central Europe is an answer to the warfare of Russia towards Ukraine and Georgia. Moreover, the commitment of the United States in Europe is also a measure to reassure European NATO member states, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, the United Kingdom and Poland as well as Finland and Sweden from continuous provocations made by Russian aircrafts.
Putin still considered as less dangerous than China
Although the United States acted both on the Asia/Pacific and the European fields, the military agreement with Japan, and the dislocation of Patriots in Poland, show that the Obama Administration is more concerned about the military rise of China and North Korea than about the warfare of Russia in Eastern Europe.
In fact, while the new military guidelines between the United States and Japan are immediately effective, the delivering of the Patriots to Poland will be fully realized only within 10 years: too late to represent a serious answer to Russian armed aggression and military provocations to NATO member states and Countries allied to the North Atlantic alliance.
Moreover, whereas the military agreement between the United States and Japan de facto authorizes Tokyo to use force in case of attack from China and North Korea as a special ally of Washington, the dislocation of the Patriots in Poland does not allow Warsaw to react to possible military provocations made by Russia as a special military ally to the United States.
Therefore, Poland, a traditional key ally to the United States, still remains without a necessary political support by the Washington.
Finally, the disproportion between the United States-Japan military agreement and the dislocation of the Patriots in Poland risks to jeopardize the strategy of collective defense of the Trans Atlantic Community which, otherwise, needs to be totally uniformed and quite well integrated.
On the one hand, countries allied to the United States within the Asia/Pacific region, such as Japan and South Korea, will have the right to quickly react to any military attack to America or other States of the Trans Atlantic Community.
On the other hand, Poland and NATO member states of Central Europe remain unable to defend the European Union in a quick way and independently from long, and often difficult consultations among all the members of the North Atlantic military alliance.
Matteo Cazzulani
Strategy XXI
@MatteoCazzulani
