We are glad to present to your attention a new edition of "Methanesphere" n° 5 (8) 2013 devoted to the scenarios of potential gas production in two countries of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. Poland and Ukraine. Both countries are in the vanguard of the European unconventional gas extraction process and could create in next decade the Methane Belt of Europe with appropriate geopolitical consequences. We have simulated potential results in case if the production projects turn out to be successful. Certainly, our suggestions do not consider a factor of conjectural pendular lugs of Ukrainian government on the vector Russia-EU. We consciously try to abstract in our model and proceed from the fact that base strategic tendencies will always prevail over the situational ones. It is clear, that the governmental flip of 21 November to refrain from signing the Association Agreement with the EU and the backstage talks about the gas question conducted by the separate persons increase the risks of the important UCG exploration projects in Ukraine. The position of the eastern monopolistic natural gas supplier is a well–known for us today and consists of following statements:

– the shift of Ukraine from the Energy Community Treaty;

– refusal from the reverse gas supplies in Ukraine;

– disposition of the Ukrainian GTS under the control of "Gasprom" by the means of its privatization or consortium;

– refusal from the projects of UCG exploration projects In Ukraine in exchange of SJSC "Naftogaz" access to the gas extraction in Russia;

– the increase of Russian gas purchase volumes.

It is not difficult to anticipate that all this will gradually lead to the "silent death" of the UCG projects. That's why there is no sense to model the unsuccessful scenarios – the result is well predictable. In our case the success scenario is the estimation of what authority tried to do (irrespectively to its motives) and what it can lose so ineptly.