Europe still believes in gas interdependence with Russia, considering it from business as usual point of view. At the same time Kremlin builds up its own plans in terms of total confrontation with the West, where victory should be achieved by any means and economic losses are of minor importance. European leaders are elected to provide conditions for growing wealth of voters in peace and accord. Large-scale conflicts, not to say military actions, make them weak and unable for quick and strong resistance. Kremlin counts on this and tries to return Europe into violence and lawlessness of darkest days in recent centuries.
Kremlin’s successful restoration of “soviet space” was prevented by Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity. Diverting much of Kremlin’s efforts and attention, Ukraine contributed enormous to keep possible Association Agreements (AA) with Georgia and Moldova. Kremlin appeared to be unable for active destabilizing actions against more then one country. Failed “Blitzkrieg” in Crimea made possible for three EaP members to sign AA and to start ratification and implementation processes.
Failed “Novorissia” project and large-scale war in East Ukraine tied up further Kremlin’s efforts to destabilize Georgia and Moldova in similar way and completely destroy EU Eastern policy. It is not excluded however, that these countries and even several EU member states will not face military threats in coming years.
Kremlin considers very rational hostilities against the EU. Avoiding direct military operations, it prepares “gas weapon” to be launch widely during coming heating season. In Normandy V. Putin threatened to use it for political reasons to punish for reverse flows to
Ukraine. In September several EU companies announced declining supply amounts. At the same time Kremlin postponed trilateral gas talks, showing its regular strategy to negotiate under worthiest period for partners. It is one of clearest signals that Kremlin is dealing in terms of war, while the EU still believes in common peace in Europe.
Kremlin is ready to suffer some financial and image losses in exchange for own goals being achieved. Large-scale gas war in Europe during coming winter will have immediate non-lethal effect on overwhelming majority in EU countries with opportunity for Gazprom to divide and rule by redirecting gas flows through already existing bypass network. It will keep possibility to justify itself by technical, economical, political or any other reasons, while waiting as long as necessary for solution, preferred preliminary by Kremlin.
To politically threaten Europe, Kremlin signed a very questionable gas agreement with China and demonstrated start of “Sila Sibiri” pipeline from the Eastern Siberia. On September 1, Gazprom promised to accelerate preparation of new contract on gas supply from Western Siberia (Altai pipeline).
Simultaneously Kremlin tries to divide the EU by carrots for some counties and sticks for others. Germany is ensured to be supplied via Nord stream even in case of full cut off through Ukraine. It could also provide surplus to neigbouring countries, if OPAL would be excepted from Third energy package. Austrian OMV is here surely among most important clients, emerging in recent time as the biggest supporter of Gazprom’s plans in the EU.
Kremlin has selected Bulgaria to train sabotage of European Commission requirements on staying within European legislation, while implementing energy projects. By cutting off transit via Ukraine Kremlin seems to have intention both to create critical situation in Bulgarian economics and heating system during winter time and to set up control over elected in October politicians in parliament and government.
Italy is also likely to become a target for Kremlin. If during cold months gas supply will significantly go down because of gas transit cut off via Ukraine, Kremlin considers to find friendlier attitude both from Italian national politicians and new High Representative of the
Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy with regard to own gas projects and control over Eastern Europe.
Romania may also face gas supply reduction, thus being eventually forced to eliminate deliveries to Moldova, which will stay without Russian gas in case of transit cut off via Ukraine.
Poland may also face full Russian gas cut off via Jamal-Europe pipeline, if some unexpected technical problems suddenly arise to put pressure on D. Tusk, acting President of the European Council to solve to conflict on V. Putin’s terms and conditions.
Contrary to Europe, Russian citizens will not suffer from low temperatures without gas supply and worsening social conditions are already explained by hostilities of the West. Kremlin will rather burn gas surplus, not used domestically, than restore supply to Europe without own demands to be fulfilled.
Being ready to maximum conflict with Europe in gas sphere during coming winter time, Kremlin will certainly bring forward highest requirements:
1) Bilateral refusal on claims similar to outcomes of gas crisis in 2009;
2) Exception for OPAL and South stream from Third energy package;
3) Transfer of control over Ukraine’s GTS and UGSF to Gazprom for ensuring gas transit to the EU;
4) Freezing ratification of AA with EaP countries (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine);
5) Immediate ceasefire in East Ukraine with following negotiations under Kremlin’s requirements;
6) Refusal on increase of NATO forces in Eastern and Central Europe.
What could be a counter measures for such Kremlin’s intentions?
The first and most important issue is common understanding, that Kremlin wages war not against Ukraine, but entire Europe. Citizens should be informed and instructed about possible threats, including reduction of gas supply, corresponding problems on local or national levels and even emergency state. Trainings and checks should be made in order to avoid massive panic and vulnerabilities at least in most threatened countries. Strong preventive measures against Kremlin may still hinder realization of its plans. Therefore launch of financial (SWIFT) and gas sanctions and investigations against Russian top-officials and businessmen in the EU and its partner countries, request to Kremlin to ensure access to Asia gas and its transit via Russian gas infrastructure may become instruments to prevent further conflict escalation in Europe.
Europeans and the entire world should understand that only removal of acting leader in Kremlin will prevent large-scale war, including a nuclear one, as threatened already by V. Putin. His isolation should become a prime goal for politicians and diplomats around the world to return stability of international order.
