President of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” Michael Gonchar in his comments to Ukrainian “Day” newspaper noticed following. “The European Commission though is a dubious ally "as demonstrated almost plasticine position and ready to go at much greater concessions than could be imagined in such circumstances," but, so far we still can count on it. Recently, in the network the information appeared that the EU may resort to drastic measures - to declare the project "South Stream" out of the law (Third Energy Package), and refuse finally its construction.
If the EU will do what it said it would cause a devastating, almost catastrophic impact on the Kremlin in the gas front. "South Stream" - is the apotheosis of transnational gas corruption, on which are marked all the "kickbacks" in Europe. And this is one of the most important reasons why Russia did started this fight against Ukraine. Kremlin had to demonstrate in typical for Russia way that Ukraine permanently is an unstable transit zone, where there are some events that threaten gas supplies to Europe. But there came a bummer! Despite the instability in the east, provoked and guided by Russia, gas transit to Europe was not interrupted by Ukraine. Even when there were some terroristic attacks on gas-distributing stations in May in Ivano-Frankivsk and in June in Poltava, we quickly and smoothly solved the problems. And transit was not interrupted. This is a strong argument in our favor: in times of warfare the transit function of Ukraine is not broken, and it is a guarantee to demonstrate the reliability of our transit system.
KREMLIN TRIES TO THWART TRANSIT
If Ukrainian side fails to sign a shameful agreement at the table of gas negotiations in near future, the Kremlin still will try to disrupt the transit of gas through Ukraine to Europe. We remember that it was a feature of the first and second gas crisis. The parties mutually accused each other of disruption of gas supplies to Europe. "Gazprom" and the entire Kremlin propaganda machine indicated that Ukraine stole gas. On our side, as always late, was the answer that, well, we did not steal it, they cut off valve. Many politicians in Ukraine cannot openly say that Russia - is the aggressor, and she went to war with Ukraine. A whole half-position only blows fire and gives grounds for doubt: "What if Ukrainians actually steal?"
Ukraine needs a transparent mechanism for tripartite audit of the pipes. It is very simple. "The gas metering stations on transit routes through Ukraine, ranging from the Russian border, ending European, should provide on-line information on two parameters. First - the pressure in the pipes. The second - the amount of gas. Where the pressure in the pipe fell, there was a problem. If the pressure in the pipe dropped on the Russian side - the problem is in Russia, if on Ukrainian - then in Ukraine. You can find out what happened: just an accident or not. If there was no accident, then what? Blocked gas!
We should mention that the idea is not new. Experts began to speak on the importance of the building of such a system immediately after the first gas crisis. But today we finally came to its implementation. "Ukraine for its part last year has made tremendous progress - from May "Naftogaz" provides on-line information on the amount of gas in storage facilities. "Ukrtransgas" provides very detailed information on gas entered on the border with Ukraine, and how much went in all directions. We found the maximum openness and have a right to demand this from other parties. Of course Russia refuses to do it. We need to coordinate it with Europe, but from the EU here again the problem for some reasons. Commission inexplicably does not want such a mechanism. Formally, there exists "EU-Russia" bilateral early warning mechanism, which was created after the second "gas crisis". In this mechanism, only the name is so terrible. But in fact it is a bureaucratic paper-telephone system that allows manipulation with its European partners.
The essence of this mechanism is that when something happens, one side is calling the other, or sends a letter that in Ukraine the problem. Ukraine at that time did not know that Russia sends to Brussels. Just after this the European side will call us and require explanation. In short - it's totally subjective system. In addition, it has been developed by Russia. This is due to the fact that the former European Commissioner for energy Andris Piebalgs (Latvia) finished his powers. Therefore, without going into the substance of the proposed, he signed a memorandum which, by its nature, is a narrow-minded and ineffective, in addition was elaborated by Russia to manipulate the EU. But guessing about the ineffectiveness of the mechanism, inherited from Piebalgs, the European Commission continues formally to invoke the existing early warning mechanism, saying that they do not need more. The question is ‘why’?
The only organization that supports the initiative of online pipeline monitoring is the European Energy Charter, which manages Urban Rusnak, former Slovak Ambassador to Ukraine. Rusnak had felt that it smells the biggest energy crisis in Europe already in March this year. He called international meeting in Brussels. Our organization "Strategy XXI" did the report about the idea of this audit. In fact, even the Russian side has not publicly opposed it. But as a result of internal monthly discussion it was decided to preserve the existing status quo. And representatives of the European Commission just blocked the creation of a tripartite mechanism – an antidote to the gas wars.
