Expert on energy issues, president of the Centre for Global Studies "Strategy XXI"Mykhailo Gonchar says that it is not possible shortly to build a stable energy system in the annexed peninsula.
- There was no self-sufficient energy system in the Crimea, it doesn't exist now and will not be in the future. The region is deadlocked, whatever configuration we consider. Especially this deadlock has intensified since the annexation of the peninsula. South Russia is energy-deficient. Capacities that are not intended to transmit large volumes of electricity from Taman to the Crimea cannot work properly, so an accident at the substation occurred. Butwhy it happened right now? Thatnight, the third unit of the Rostov nuclear power plant was decommissioned, and in the day, the demand on electricity increased on the South of Russia and in the Crimea. After 12-13 hours, there was a blackout, because the system was overloaded with energy demands, and it was not in abundance.
Proceeding from the schedule of further work of the Rostov NPP, Mykhailo Gonchar calls the alleged dates of new shutdowns of light in the Crimea.
- The next blackout should take place somewhere July 16-17, because the second power unit of the Rostov NPP will be put out of service for scheduled maintenance. The situation may berepeated. Withless probability, this can happen again on September 2-3, when the first block of the Rostov NPP will also be put out for repair. The NPP is the main donor of the energy system of the South of Russia. Plus,there is an increasing demand for electricity in the military infrastructure in the Crimea. From the beginning ofJune there are intensive exercises of the Southern Military District. It is possible to make additional generating capacities, but the issue is with the networks. Existing power lines in the Crimea are not intended for transmission of large capacities from the places of generation to the places of consumption. They were originally designed to transmit electricity from the north to the south and east of the peninsula.
Mykhailo Gonchar concludes that even with the commissioning of two TPPs in the autumn of 2018, the probability of blackouts will not disappear, and for complete rebuilding of the infrastructure, the Russian authorities will need time at least until 2025.
