The rupture of gas contracts between Ukraine and Russia will not relieve the parties from fulfilling their obligations under these contracts, so it will not be easy to realize such a Russian intention.
Such opinion was expressed by the president of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", expert on energy issues, Mykhailo Gonchar during a chat at Glavred.
According to him, Gazprom creates the appropriate media and psychological pressure on the Ukrainian and the EU leadership in order to make Kiev take into account the Russian position, and Brussels to rely on a loyal attitude in the construction of the Nord Stream 2.
However, even if the contracts are terminated or their action will be completed within a certain time - on December 31, 2019, Gazprom will not be able to do without the services of the Ukrainian GTS, Gazprom will work on the newly built gas pipelines for at least another two years (to carry out work on the test of the newly built gas transmission systems Nord Stream 2 and the TurkStream) before they are put into design capacity. Therefore, one way or another, some temporary transit contract will be signed, said Gonchar.
According to the expert, if a consolidated position of Ukraine and the European Commission takes place, joint efforts can lead the Russian side to sign the next long-term contract with appropriate guarantees of transit volumes on the basis of the principle of "ship or pay".
"While we are seeing the European Commission's detached position, the position of the mediator between Ukraine and Russia, which, in my opinion, is inadmissible, since Ukraine, and not Russia, is a member of the Energy Community Treaty, Ukraine, and not Russia, has an Association Agreement with the EU, Ukraine , and not Russia implements the Third Energy Package. Therefore, it is logical that Brussels and Kiev should act in a consolidated way, "said the interlocutor.
Gonchar added that the task of Ukrainian diplomacy in this context is the question of achieving consolidation of efforts in the interests of both Ukraine and the EU.
"It is important for us to secure guarantees for loading our GTS at least at the level of 60 billion cubic meters a year, then it will maintain its functionality, and although it is close to zero, but a positive profitability," the analyst quoted.
Let's remind, Gazprom has sent to Stockholm arbitration documents for the termination of contracts with Naftogaz of Ukraine for supply and transit of fuel.
Source: Glavred
