On the other hand, Moscow has a friendly Republika Srpska (RS) in Bosnia and Herzegovina, through which it can continue to derail the already fragile region. The current president, Milorad Dodik, plays a dangerous game on nationalism of ethnic Serbs, who feel losing after the Balkan wars in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Not for nothing, a couple of weeks ago, theForeign Policy Research Institute issued a report detailing the reasons for a possible recurrence in Bosnia of the scenario implemented by Russia on the Donbass.
Another attempt of destabilization
In the middle of March, the European media were charged with headlines that "Bosnia and Herzegovina could become the next Ukraine". The reason was the Foreign Policy Research Institute report "Bosnia on the Russian Chopping Block: The Potential for Violence and Steps to Prevent It". According to the authors, Russia considers the Western Balkans part of its global strategy for changing the world order. Having demonstrated readiness to use military force, Moscow prevented the entry of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO and the EU. The Western Balkans, candidates for membership in the European Union and the Alliance, are next.
"The most pronounced Russian intervention in Bosnia is in the RS security sector. With Russian support, RS police and security forces receive training and equipment similar to that of an army. In direct violation of the Dayton Peace Accords, the RS Ministry of Interior has procured numerous military-grade weapons over the past two years. Russian organizations such as the Night Wolves biker group (with representations in Serbia, Montenegro and the Republika Srpska), which played an active role in Crimea’s annexation, are helping to form Serb nationalist paramilitary forces," the report says.
The Dayton Accords, signed in December 1995, put an end to the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which became a federation.
According to the expert of the Centre for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" and the Council of Foreign Policy "Ukrainian Prism" Vitalii Martyniuk, Russia has for a very long time maintained its personal friendly relations with the president and political leader of the RS, Milorad Dodik, who has been in office for 15 years. He periodically visits Moscow, even meets with Putin, and through him Russian policy has been actually implemented not only towards Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also towards all the Western Balkans.
The expert emphasizes that in Bosnia and Herzegovina there is no clear leadership of the country: there is a government, but there is no president - there is a presidium of three people who lead by rotation. And the Republika Srpska is doing just about everything so that Bosnia and Herzegovina does not become a cohesive state with normal administration. Interestingly, the Republika Srpska has close ties with Serbia, although officially Belgrade supports the integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
"Milorad Dodik has always been a destabilizing link in Bosnia and Herzegovina. From his mouth there are constantly heard statements about the separation and holding of a referendum. As a politician, he does not see himself in another status. But he plays a dangerous game on nationalism of ethnic Serbs, who feel losing after the Balkan wars in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Although I exclude regular wars in the Balkans - the population is too tired of the wars in the 90's," Vitalii Martyniuk said.
Belgrade and Pristina have time until autumn
Immediately after the publication of the Foreign Policy Research Institute report, relations between Serbia and Kosovo aggravated. A special operation was held on Monday in Kosovo Mitrovica (a city in the north of Kosovo) for the arrest of Serbian diplomat Mark Djurich - the main negotiator between Belgrade and Pristina with EU mediation.
Mark Djurich came to a round table on creation of Serbian communities in the north of Kosovo, with the participation of Kosovo ministers and politicians and officials from Belgrade, although on the eve of the event he was refused to entry.
As a result, the round table turned into a mask show: the Kosovan police, using teardrop gas and light grenades, detained Djurich and turned him to Serbia.
Perhaps, there is no Russian trace in the scandal with detention and deportation of the Serbian diplomat. However, it is not worthy to underestimate the influence of Moscow on the region. According to the expert of the Centre for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" and the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism" Vitalii Martyniuk, to continue its aggressive policy, Russia is constantly in need of something new. After all, generally speaking, the annexation of the Crimea, the beginning of the war in the Donbas, the intervention in Syria took place to distract attention. Now there is a logical question, and what's next? And the weak point is the Western Balkans, where Russia has both opportunities and presence, and where it can continue the policy of destabilization of the EU. The European Union wants all Western Balkans to become EU members. In addition, the Balkan region is geographically located so that any destabilization immediately becomes tangible for the EU as a whole and diverts its attention to this region from other problems, including from the Russian war in Ukraine.
"The activation of pro-Russian forces in the Balkans is a sinusoid. There was an attempt of overthrow in Montenegro in November 2016, the internal destabilization in Macedonia in the spring and summer of 2017. I would not say that Russia organized everything in Macedonia, rather it took advantage of the situation. The final results of the investigation on Montenegro are expected, but Montenegro has already declared Russia's involvement. And all these attempts of Moscow are surely correlated with something. In Montenegro, it is connected with the accession of the country to NATO. But anyway, Montenegro became a NATO member. We should also mention the minor unrests in Kosovo when the train, labeled "Kosovo is Serbia", moved. That is, this sinusoid exists and now there is a peak, which is connected not only with the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also with Kosovo. And all this is in the face of another escalation with the West - a scandal around Salisbury, which resulted in the expulsion of Russian diplomats. Incidentally, this coincided with the intensification of hostilities in the Donbass. Russia feels it should give an answer, but cannot give a direct one, and is looking for other ways," - Vitalii Martyniuk summed up.
