"The tactics of the actions of the Russian side may change. Even now it was possible to observe a certain ceasefire in the Donbass. But it is not connected with the fact that Moscow suddenly decided to fulfill its part of the Minsk agreements. It is connected with the holding of presidential elections in Russia. Plus, the conflict between the Russian Federation and Great Britain erupted, so Moscow was busy with that. Already after a certain time after the election, most likely after the inauguration procedure, the situation may worsen, in comparison with the current situation and reach the level of the beginning of this year, but without serious deterioration. After all, the World Cup is ahead, which will be held in Russia on June 14 - July 15. Fans will be reluctant to go to a country that is at war with another neighboring country, as the situation may become aggravated. Therefore, the Kremlin will not allow a sharp deterioration of the situation in the Donbas. Having invested large sums in the preparation of Mundial, it expects to get profit, which foreign fans should bring, and also receive reputation / image dividends. This is for the short term", Vitalii Martyniuk says.
The analyst notes that the level of international mistrust towards Russia is growing, the position of the West is toughened and thus stimulates the external isolation of the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, the expert points out, the Kremlin is interested in creating the image of a "besieged fortress" for Russians. Thus, Putin will conduct a destructive policy towards Ukraine, Europe, the world and the Russian Federation itself. In thelong term, the Kremlin still will not leave the Donbas until it has a certain level of resilience, the expert notes.
"The level of resilience should include: 1) the financial and economic component - higher oil prices in comparison with 2014-2015 years which allow to keep the Russian budget; 2) the internal political component - the danger of internal protest (rebellion) is completely extinguished by the Russian authorities by neutralizing real political opponents (elections have clearly demonstrated this), preventing social and economic failures, increasing propaganda (informational influence); 3) the foreign policy component - in Europe and the world there are still political leaders of states that advocate maintaining a dialogue with the Russian Federation and even lifting sanctions", the expert adds.
