There are two important components of Ukraine's success. First, there were professional foreign consultants and advisers.Second, non-interference of state authorities.
In 2011, under the Yanukovych regime, Naftogaz lost its absolutely winning process in the same Stockholm arbitration on RosUkrEnergo case.The then government gave instructions to the company's management to soft-pedal the process. Witnesses did not appear, the necessary documents were not signed.
This time, too, could be an indication from the Presidential Administration not to spoil the strategic partnership and "eternal friendship" with Russia. But we are in a state of war with it. Even if someone would like to resolve the issue amicably, it would have been impossible.
Our victory was positively influenced by the fact that Naftogaz was headed by a new, young and competent team.
-Russia will try to postpone the payment of compensation.In this case, Naftogaz may again sue the Stockholm court. Sanctions will be imposed on Gazprom in the form of interest and the amount may increase.
They can not refuse to execute the arbitration decision. Moscow does not control this institution. In addition, Gazprom and its partners periodically turn to Stockholm arbitration. Therefore, they are not interested in damaging the relationship.
If they refuse to pay, Ukraine may resort to arbitration with the requirements of enforced recovery of Gazprom's property. It has a lot of property abroad.
Cooperation between Naftogaz and Gazprom should continue until the expiration of joint contracts. That is, by 2020. This is also the decision of the Stockholm arbitration. Ukraine is obliged to buy at least 4 billion cubic meters of gas annually in Russia. Such volumeswill not create asituation of critical dependence on Russian gas.Last year we consumed 32 billion cubic meters. 4 billion of exports from Russia will be only the one eighth part. For comparison, previously almost two thirds of the required gas were purchased in the Russian Federation.
On March 2, Gazprom announced the dissolution of all previously concluded contracts with Kyiv. This also applies to the supply of gas to Ukrainian consumers, and the contract for transit to Europe.
-This is a nervous breakdown of Gazprom.It doesn't threaten Ukraine seriously. We will have enough gas to the end of the cold season, - Mykhailo Gonchar says. - It will take a week - and the situation will return to the usual course. It is unprofitable for Russia to organize another gas war, because it expects the final decision of Germany on permission to build the Nord Stream-2 (gas pipeline from Russia to Germany bypassing Ukraine). But it wants to threaten Ukraine in its inherent manner.
Moscow may break the previously concluded contracts, but without our gas transportation system, it will not supply fuel to Europe. At least until the Nord Stream 2 and the Turkish Stream (a gas pipeline planned to be built alongthe Black Sea from the Anapa District of Russia to Turkey) is built.Terminating contracts does not relieve Moscow of its obligations. This is just another act of psychological pressure from Gazprom.
