"I think that in the coming months, probably after the re-election of Putin and holding the 2018 FIFA World Cup, the threat of developing a negative scenario will be preserved. There will be a serious risk that Russia will try to create a new reason for invading Ukraine. It does not mean that they will try to bring down a passenger plane again, no, it will not pass anyway, but they will find another scenario with civil casualties as Russia had nothing left to enter their "peacekeepers," he said.

Against this background, the expert pointed out that Russian propaganda has repeatedly emphasized that the "people of Donbass" are threatened by "genocide" in the event that the "Kievan junta" will restore its authority throughout the territory of the Donbas or if the peacekeepers will be introduced into the region according to the US-Ukrainian proposal.

"I think the Russians will provoke a scenario related to the mass destruction by the "Kievan junta" of the so-called "people of the Donbas", perhaps including OSCE observers. Then, taking into account the UN's slowness, Russia will try to introduce its peacekeeper contingent in order to prevent supposed negative scenarios on its borders," said Gonchar.

Russia's withdrawal from the Joint Monitoring and Coordination Center, in Gonchar’s opinion, also proves the "scenario of pseudo-peace-building":  For Russia, it is necessary to remove this balance, which was created for the mutual control of the combat activity. Russia has found an artificial pretext to withdraw."

According to Gonchar, in the doctrine of Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, where the technology of hybrid warfare was detalized, the phases of such a war were described. It ends with a peacekeeping operation. "But the peacekeeping operation is not in the sense of the UN. Russia understands under the guise of peacekeeping forces introducing of its contingents,"  said the head of the analytical center.

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