Russia wants to prove the necessity of the "Nord Stream - 2", so it can unleash a new energy war. "The next five to six weeks is a period of high risk, when energy-militaristic approach can win in the Kremlin. This does not mean that just tomorrow they will turn off a tap. I think now internal struggle of Kremlin's gas-botox substance is underway because of strive to make money (it is now maximum gas flow to the EU because of cold weather) and great desire to unleash an energy war," - the expert said.
He believes that the Russians are constantly monitoring the situation with gas storages in Ukraine, because they want to find a convenient moment for attack.
"Now the situation is such that it is possible to conflict. On the other hand, they are cautious now and are monitoring the situation to get the desired effect but not the reverse one, as in 2015, when they tightened the tap and got minus $ 5 billion of revenue. While Ukraine has still a large stock of gas in storages, they are waiting leisure. But in February, the volume of gas reserves will decrease, because January is cold, and then such a scenario could happen," - said Gonchar.
In his opinion, Russia is interested in initiating the energy crisis to spur the Europeans to support the "Nord Stream".
"The most important thing for Russia is to prove the necessity of the" Nord Stream - 2 ", which is pompously begun to build. And here the following principle might work: "we shal pay any price - let there be losses, but we will crush all by massive propaganda." They say, Ukraine is guilty. It is an unreliable transit link. All that needed is to provoke another energy crisis. Unlike the previous times, "Naftogaz" and "Ukrtransgaz" act properly; they give timely comments (even with some humor), show charts. It works. But the array of Russian propaganda instruments abroad is so massive that allows to present a biased distorted view as the only correct one," - said the source.
On January 8, "Naftogaz" reported that there were possible provocations from "Gazprom" because of cold weather in Russia. "We are waiting for a favorite song: to scare that Ukraine withdraws gas from own UGSs."
Because of the cold weather the withdrawl of gas from underground storage facilities of Ukraine increased up to 100 million m3 per day, - it was reported on January 6 by the company "Ukrtransgaz". According to its data, there were almost 11.8 billion m3 of gas in underground storages as of January 5. At the beginning of the heating season they had 14.7 billion m3 of gas.
Source: "GORDON"
