An indirect election is nothing exciting for citizens, although sometimes it may matter a lot, such as the case of the election of the President of European Parliament. On January 17, the Members of European Parliament will cast their ballot to elect the new President of the Assembly of the representatives elected by the European citizens, since the incumbent Martin Schulz has to step down after two mandates.
The election might lead the center-right European People Party -EPP-, who controls the relative majority of seats in the European Parliament, to control all the main European Institutions. Currently, both the President of European Commission Jean Claude Juncker and the President of EU Council Donald Tusk are EPP members.
According to a political agreement between the EPP and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats -S&D- that made possible for Martin Schulz, a German socialist, to be elected the President of European Parliament, the S&D group should have been supporting the EPP candidate, Antonio Tajani.
However, S&D President Gianni Pittella declared the great coalition with the EPP to be over and decided to run for President of European Parliament as the candidate of the main political group of center-left and the leader of a crusade against the monopoly of the center-right within the European Institutions.
The competition between Tajani and Pittella might lead to a polarization of the Parliament between a huge center-right coalition and a huge center-left one. On the one hand, in order to get a strong majority, Tajani and the EPP need the support of the group of European Conservatives and Reformists -ECR- which is the third largest group of the Parliament composed, among all, by British Tories and the Polish right-wing ruling party PiS.
On the other hand, Pittella and the S&D, which is the second largest group in the European Parliament, need to secure an alliance with the Greens and the United Left-Nordic Greens group -GUE- and get the support of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe -ALDE- a group headed by former Belgium PM Guy Verhofstad.
In order to convince the conservatives to unite with the EPP to support his candidacy, Tajani, a protégé of former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi, might promise to support austerity measures aimed at decreasing public expenses. Tajani might also propose to oppose all policies aimed at approaching Ukraine and Serbia to EU political and economic standards to gain support from far-right and anti-Europe parties.
On the other hand, Pittella might back an ambitious struggle on austerity to unite behind him the left, the Greens and those ALDE MEPs committed to Civil Rights, Social Equality and Environmental issues: all battles Pittella has been championing as S&D President and, previously, Vice President of European Parliament. Pittella is also likely to promote an assertive role of the EU to further integrate Ukraine and Serbia within the big European family.
Juncker and Schulz to back Verhofstad to avoid that Southern Europe would be represented in EU Institutions
On the paper, Tajani has a relevant advantage due to a likely coalition of Christian-Democrats, Conservatives and populists that might ensure him to be elected. On the other hand, Pittella needs to form a very broad coalition of socialists, democrats, liberals, greens and far-left.
While Tajani and Pittella are the main contenders of the election, ALDE leader Guy Verhofstad might emerge as the final winner due to his capability to mediate between the EPP and the S&D and intercept the disagreement of many European citizens towards the Great Coalition of Christian-Democrats and Socialists.
Moreover, several sources reported that the incumbent President of European Parliament Schulz might consider to endorse Verhofstad instead of Pittella in order to allow the countries of Old Europe -Germany, France and Benelux- to maintain the monopoly of EU Institutions.
A total control of the main institutions of the European Union by representatives of the Old Europe is likely to reiterate a bad management of EU affairs that does not guarantee neither pair treatment nor pair representation to Central Eastern Europe and Southern Europe.
In fact, members of the Old Europe are traditionally unlikely to share the right to decide to members of Central Eastern Europe, Southern Europe and countries outside of Eurozone, such as Denmark and Sweden.
Should Verhofstad become the President of European Parliament, two of the main European Institutions will be controlled by politicians of the Old Europe, such as Juncker from Luxembourg and Verhofstad from Belgium.
In so doing, Central Eastern Europe would represent the minority within the EU Institutions, and Southern Europe will not be represented at all.
Otherwise, should either Tajani or Pittella become the President of European Parliament, the power of Old Europe would be balanced by representatives of Central Eastern Europe such as EU Council President Tusk, who is from Poland, and representatives of Southern Europe such as Tajani or Pittella, who are both from Italy.
Strategy XXI
@MatteoCazzulani
