I would state a hypothesis about the relationship between these two processes, given the fact how both companies as well as these persons - Tillerson and Sechin - are positioned in the world. Exxon Mobil Corp is the largest private multinational oil and gas company in the world, originally from Texas. It operates in major oil-producing regions, owns refineries in 25 countries, has a network of petrol stations in more than 100 countries. Its market capitalization reaches $363,3 billion. Steve Coll, a Pulitzer Prize Winning journalist, who studies the history of the company, describes it as "one of the planet’s most hated corporations, able to determine American foreign policy and the fate of entire nations". Exxon Mobil did not hesitate to deal with dictatorial regimes in Africa, developing fields without strict compliance with environmental standards.

Tillerson's predecessor Lee "Iron Ass" Raymond was known as a skeptic about anthropogenic causes of climate change. The current company's leadership keeps up the same corporate policy. And here the question arises whether Trump's position in respect to the Paris climate agreement is his personal position or it is inspired by oil and gas magnates which promised him support and supported him in the election?

Rex Tillerson has the nickname of "T. Rex", by analogy with “T.Rex” contraction, taken in English for the name of dinosaur of Tyrannosaurs family - the biggest predator of the planet in the prehistoric era.

Exxon Mobil is the leader in the exploration of Arctic oil and natural gas. The Arctic is a longtime landmark since the 80's. The position of the company is that the satisfaction of the growing world energy demand requires development of all available sources of oil and natural gas, including those found on the Arctic shelf. It is believed that development of these resources will take a long path and so it must be started now to strengthen energy security and to benefit the US in the future.

Rosneft is much more modest in terms of capitalization, now its assets are only worth 58 billion dollars, but in the pre-sanctions period they were worth 92 billion dollars; but it surpasses Exxon Mobil in the volume of reserves and production. Igor Sechin is the creator of Rosneft in its current form; it was built on the ruins of M. Khodorkovsky's Yukos which was destroyed by Sechin in 2000s.

This summer, Igor Sechin gathered the heads of world major oil companies at the International Economic Forum in St.Petersburg. Among them was R. Tillerson, as well as the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation A. Novak, the former Chancellor of Germany Mr. Schroeder, the former "Stasi" officer M. Warnig. Sechin touched upon the election of the President of the United States. According to him, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's different approaches to development of oil and gas industries put them at risk. "The Republicans have already now proposed measures for development of domestic production and export of oil, gas and coal, while Hillary Clinton has proposed to enhance support for renewable energy," he said. Whith that, Sechin urged not to hope that wind and solar power would replace oil and gas. The Rosneft CEO's speech, according to Russian journalists, reminded Vladimir Putin's Munich speech in 2007, adjusted to the fact that it touched not the whole spectrum of geopolitical relations, but only oil issue. "The outcome of the current crisis has become rethinking of the role played by major players. Their crystallization is underway. They are the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia", Sechin said .

And here is the most interesting thing. Indeed, the global oil market has been formed by these three countries. The market is overloaded with these players although the US still imports oil in contrast to others. But less than 10 years ago the US was the largest importer of gas, and now it is exported from the country. The United States needs space to establish itself on the world oil market. Some of these three majors would be left over. Alternative energy should be depreciated, or at least its growth should be lowered. A hydrocarbon era should continue. On this specific subjects, the views of “T. Rex” and Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft, are in line. “T. Rex and "Igor the Terrible" (one of Sechin's nicknames) lead the largest and most influential companies in the United States and Russia. They have identical views on a number of global issues and common interests in development of complex and difficult fields. First of all - in the Arctic and Subarctic.

According to Rosneft evaluations, the reserves of the West Siberian oil and gas province exceed the reserves of the Gulf of Mexico and are comparable to the reserves of Saudi Arabia. You should pay attention to comparison with the Kingdom of oil and sand. Exxon wants to participate in development not only of the American Arctic but the Russian Arctic too. Sechin, as one of the main builders of energy superstate is a key Russian counterpart for Tillerson. His connections and influence in Russia provide Exxon with preferential treatment in the Russian Federation. Both companies signed a strategic cooperation agreement in 2011. "Our cooperation touches upon the most promising spheres of oil and gas industry: blocks on the Arctic shelf and deepwater blocks of the Black sea with total area of 773 thousand square km, hard-to-recover oil reserves in Western Siberia, as well as a promising LNG project in the Russian far East", Sechin said in 2013. "We are convinced that the implementation of these projects will serve the interests of shareholders of both companies". The amount of investments for Russian projects is estimated at 200-300 billion dollars. Besides, Rosneft gets access to six Exxon projects in the United States.

"T.Rex" has a long-standing acquaintances with Putin, since the 90s, when he represented Exxon Mobil in Russia. There are jokes that Tillerson talked with Putin more often than any other American except Henry Kissinger. In 2012 he was awarded the Russian Order of Friendship. "T.Rex" advocates for abolition of sanctions against Russia, although the Russian occupation of Crimea has led to that Exxon lost a very promising project for offshore gas production in the Ukrainian sector of the Black sea (Scythian block). However, Tillerson is likely promised this loss to be compensated by participation at least in 10 large-scale agreed under the strategic partnership projects in Russia. But nine of them have been cut because of the sanctions against Russia: in the Arctic, Western Siberia and the shelf of the Black sea. The company have already estimated its losses at $1 billion. Now, if the "T.Rex" is appointed as the Secretary of State, the window of opportunities will be opened for both companies, which traditionally use their states for achieving corporate goals. All these may impact not only bilateral US-Russian relations but also global situation.

1. Against the above written background, Trump's obstruction of the Paris Climate Agreement fits now logically into the interests of the global oil players, especially Exxon's ones. Most likely, while expressing a negative attitude towards the Paris agreement, Trump expressed not so much his own views, as relayed positions of hydrocarbon majors for whom it is important to continue as much as possible business as usual, and as well as for Trump is important to be the President as long as possible.

2. The duet Trump—Tillerson will try to convince U.S. lawmakers to lift sanctions against Russia, despite the fact that the Crimea is occupied and Russia continues aggression against Ukraine. For Exxon, it is important to continue initiated multi-billion dollar projects of production of hydrocarbons in Western Siberia and the Russian Arctic together with Rosneft. It is worth remembering that the signing of a strategic cooperation agreement with Exxon Mobil looked as a kind of "remission of sins" for Rosneft with "Yukos case", because Sechin was the ideologist and the organizer of its destruction. Now tandem Tillerson—Sechin is ready to move further, and not only for billions dollars in profits, but also for preservation of hydrocarbon scenarios of world energy for as long as possible.

3. Arctic projects of Rosneft, implemented under extreme climate conditions, allow to build up much more gorgeous cost sheets for implementation of such projects than Miller's "kickback pipelines" . All partners will be sutisfied as well as subcontractors, and politicians who provide protection - the so-called "roof" .

4. The United States while Trump's presidency with Tillerson as the Secretary of State may sacrifice the long-standing strategic partner in the middle East — Saudi Arabia. Its oil is no longer relevant for the US, what's more, it is more superfluous on the world market for Russia and for America, which Trump wants to do self-sufficient in oil, as this is already the case with gas. The deal with Russia against the Saudis can be made by default of the parties: the United States leaves Riyadh at the mercy of fate; this process have already began under Obama's presidency and would predictably lead the Kingdom to internal upheavals, followed by decline in oil production and the loss of Saudis the role of a global oil playmaker.

5. Exxon Mobil and Rosneft will give particular emphasis on the Arctic, with all resulted from that environmental risks. Exxon will try to concentrate on the work in the Russian Arctic because it has notorious reputation in Alaska: the disaster with oil spill from tanker Exxon Valdez in 1989 has not been forgotten. But Arctic projects will be profitable with only high oil prices — more than $80 per barrel. To secure such prices it is necesary to have a collapce of Saudi Arabia and a war in the middle East — something like the Iran-Iraq war in 1980-1988. In parallel, the goal of creation additional problems for China will be realized, whose oil supplies from the Persian Gulf have become increasingly important and Saudi Arabia is already the No.1 supplier to China.

6. I.Sechin as the ruiner of Yukos is probably inspired by the idea of M. Khodorkovsky about the Yukos merger with one of the US oil and gas giants. By the way, Exxon showed the greatest interest just to Yukos in the 2000s. Direct agreements between Khodorkovsky and "Iron Ass" Lee Raymond bypassing the Kremlin caused Sechin's negative reaction. Exxon planned to acquire 40% stake in Yukos, valued at one billion in 2003. This share could be increased up to 50% later. But it did not happen then. "Igor the Terrible" had prevented that. But now he acts the same way as Khodorkovsky in the 2000s. At that, however, Sechin does not openly show political ambitions, but it is not a secret that he controls the security forces (so-called siloviki). All that Putin could oppose Sechin after privatization of the state stake was to strengthen the position of the loyal to him ally - Matthias Warnig - appointing him as an independent director of Rosneft.

7. It is possible that money for privatization of state-owned stake of Rosneft, which seems to be technically transfered through Glencore and the sovereign Fund of Qatar, in fact, may be the money of individual shareholders and managers of Exxon and Rosneft, including their leaders. The presence of Qataris in this scheme indicates just at Exxon. It is known that since the 2000s, an American company has traditionally been the largest investor in Qatar. The company has invested about a billion.

Therefore, in case of appointment "T.Rex" by Trump for the position of the Secretary of State, the world will get a risk not only of continuation of the era of fossil fuels but also the formula of a world mess: Tillerson + Sechin = US — (Europe + Paris Agreement) + (Taiwan — China) — Saudi Arabia + (Russia — Putin). It is noteworthy that Putin turns into a ballast, into a "fifth wheel" for effective collaboration between the two predators. Exxon has a good corporate memory and appetite, it is able to solve long-term challenges which require not just years but decades. Although the "Iron Ass" is no longer the head of Exxon and the deal fell apart 13 years ago, but for the company with the history of almost 140 years, this is not so long time. In 2003, the head of Exxon Mobil was present in Moscow to take part in the World Economic Forum, where the head of Yukos M.Khodorkovsky and Russian President Putin also were present. Lee Raymond hoped to get Putin's blessing for the merger with Yukos. But Sechin upset these plans and convinced Putin that the deal implied to seize economic and political power in Russia. And Sechin succeeded. Sechin and Putin demonstrated that they were those who should be reckoned with. Especially with Sechin. "T.Rex" worries not so much about the failure of "Iron Ass", he has his own bones to pick with Putin who not always honoured also him despite he was the head of the world's largest company. In the 2000s, he was responsible as a representative in Russia for activities of the production consortium on the Sakhalin shelf in the framework of the agreement, which Moscow has later called as predatory and according to which oil was exported bypassing the Federal budget. Putin halted this extremely profitable for Exxon business. But he's not important now if there is Sechin who is different than in the 2000s.

Now both sides - "T.Rex" and "Igor the Terrible" - work in synergy. Last year, for example, Sechin defended Exxon from government's claims in the Sakhalin project, and Tillerson, from his side, came out for revision of the sanctions against Russia. Each of them heading the biggest companies, in fact, put the state machine in the service of corporate goals and personal ambitions. Both companies have worldwide presence, given the scale of corporations. They are ready to prolong the era of oil Tyrannosaurus and to slow down technological progress - a world without oil. Therefore, given the combat experience of Sechin in the 80s, it is possible that the scenario of the Russian cyberinterference in the American electoral campaign was aimed not only to bring some chaos in the US, but quite specifically — to bring Trump to power, who Exxon Mobil had already placed a bet on. Thus, it does not mean that Trump will use Tillerson, but "T.Rex" has obtained the trump card. By the way, "trump" in English means a card that belongs to the group of cards that has been chosen to have the highest value in a particular game (Cambridge Dictionary)*. It is a symbolic coincidence in this case.

Predators does not miss rewards, if they hunt for preys. At that, each treats the other as a possible prey.

PS. It is a little bit early for Russians to celebrate the victory with slogans like "State Department is ours". The procedure of approval of the candidates for the position of Secretary of State is not as simple as it seems to be, and only desire of the President is not enough in order to appoint one or the other candidate as the head of the Department of State. The USA is not Russia. The likelihood that "T.Rex" will be the Secretary of State is obviously exist and is rather high. But if he even wouldn't be appointed, it is indicative that the story around "T.Rex" has highlighted those transnational corporate powers whitch somehow will influence the formation of the US policy.