Ukraine, Central Eastern Europe and Europe's energy dependence on Russia are main topics of the primaries electoral race within both the Democratic and the Republican Party that divides the candidates into "Ukrainian friendly" candidates and soft, "passive" ones who argue the need to avoid a confrontation between the United States and Russia.
Within the Democratic field, candidates advocating an assertive role of the United States with respect to Ukraine and Central Eastern Europe are former State Secretary Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden.
Ms. Clinton argued the need to help Ukraine with military and financial support in order to allow the Ukrainian army to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity from Russian military aggression. Hillary Clinton also condemned the illegal annexation of Crimea and accused Russia's President Vladimir Putin of imperialistic plans towards the neighbor European countries which Putin still considers to be vassals of Russia.
Vice President Biden, who has not decided yet whether to run into the Democratic primaries or not, publicly said it is necessary to help support Ukraine from a military point of view in order to oppose Russian aggression to Ukraine and Europe. Mr. Biden also said him to be in favor of the strengthening of NATO presence in Central Eastern Europe in order to give the reassurances important allies of the United States of the region, as Poland, the Baltic States and Rumania, are demanding.
However, the pro-Ukrainian stances of Clinton and Biden are mitigated by the behavior of Clinton and Biden as representatives of the Presidential Administration of Barack Obama, who showed himself to be less interested in Europe than some of the previous Presidential Administrations, the Reagan, Clinton and George W Bush ones for instance, used to be.
While serving as the Secretary of State within the Obama Administration, Hillary Clinton planed, and began to realize the shift of the priorities of US diplomacy from Europe and the Middle East to the Asia/Pacific. In particular, Ms. Clinton was one of the main promoters of the "reset" strategy aimed to consider Russia as a partner of the United States on global issues.
Vice President Biden has been a staunch advocate of Ukraine and Central Eastern Europe. However, as the Vice President of the United States he supported the commitment of President Obama to the finalization of the Trans Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement between the United States and 12 countries of the Pacific rim that aims to isolate China and strengthens the commitment of the US to the Asia/Pacific.
Within the democratic field, other candidates expressed a more passive stance regarding Ukraine and Central Eastern Europe. The socialist-wing senator Bennie Sanders supported the sanctions the US posed on Russia after military aggression to Ukraine, but he has not expressed any opinion regarding military assistance to Ukraine. Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley has not expressed any stance regarding Ukraine, Central Eastern Europe nor US sanctions to Russia.
The most staunch positions in favor of US support to Ukraine and Central Eastern Europe have been voiced within the very crowded Republican field, where almost all the candidates strongly criticized Russia's behavior in Europe and argued the need to strengthen NATO presence in the region.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said it is necessary to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, as the Ukrainian army definitively and urgently needs military support to oppose an aggression that does not allow the Ukrainian Government to realize the structural reforms needed to apply for EU and NATO membership. Jeb Bush also advocated strong defensive signals to Poland, the Baltic States and other US allies of the region in order to oppose Russia's warfare, cyber attacks and hybrid war in Ukraine and Central Eastern Europe.
Marco Rubio, a Florida Senator and a young politician, argued the need to provide lethal weapons and military assistance to Ukraine, along with granting Ukraine with the NATO membership. Mr. Rubio, a co-sponsor of a bill in the Congress that authorizes President Obama to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, also argued the need to make Europe a priority of the exports of US natural liquefied gas, in order to help the EU to decrease energy dependence on Russia.
Senator Ted Cruz from Texas, a member of a congressional pro-Ukraine delegation, advocated the need to send defensive weapons to Ukraine. Carly Fiorina, former HP CEO, said she would arm Ukraine, assume an assertive stance towards Putin and realize the space shield defense program in Poland and the Czech Republic in order to give Central Eastern European allies to the United States significant defensive assurances.
However, "passive" and soft positions towards Ukraine, Central Eastern Europe and Russia have been voiced also within the republican field, as the astonishing one of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Mr. Carson argued the need to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, extend NATO and rethink Russia role within the Security Council of the United Nations, but failed to remember that the Baltic States are members of NATO.
The most worrying position expressed over the primaries on Ukraine, Central Eastern Europe and Russia is the one of billionaire Donald Trump, who said Ukraine is a problem of the European Union that Europeans should solve alone. Trump also stated he admires the leadership of President Putin and urged the United States to have a greater relationship with Russia despite of the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Eastern Ukraine.
Rand Paul, a representative of the libertarian "Tea Party" wing of the Republican Party, also had a soft and astonishing position regarding Ukraine and Central Eastern Europe by arguing that Ukraine is a part of former Soviet Union in which the United States should not interfere.
The division within the republican field demonstrates how the republican voters are deeply divided with respect to Ukraine, Central Eastern Europe and Russia. Moderate conservatives support the commitment of the United States to the promotion of democracy, liberty and prosperity in Europe and the Middle East, according to the agenda of the Administrations of Presidents Reagan and George W Bush. On the other hand, libertarians oppose an assertive role of the US in foreign policy by promoting an isolationist strategy.
On the other side of the aisle, moderate and liberal democrats as Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden urge a greater commitment of the United States to democracy and liberty, although they are more supportive of the shift of US foreign policy from Europe and the Middle East to the Asia/Pacific than an assertive role of the US to defend Ukraine and central Eastern Europe. On the other hand, far-left democrats as Sanders and O'Malley demonstrated themselves to be not interested in Ukraine, Central Eastern Europe and Russia as the President of the United States nowadays should be.
The House of Representatives passes the repeal of the ban on oil exports
The division between democrats and republicans has been evident in occasion of the repeal of US oil export ban, a measure introduced by the Nixon Administration in 1975 to react to the Arab oil embargo which provoked oil shortages and fear of a world energy crisis which many in the Congress believe to be anachronistic after the exploitation of US shale oil and gas.
On Friday, October 9, the House of Representatives passed a bill on the repeal of the export ban with a 261 to 159 majority well far from the 290 "ayes" votes needed to override a veto of President Obama, who threatened the House to utilize because the bill does not consider incentives to the development of "cleaner" sources of energy.
The bill on the repeal of the export ban, sponsored by republican representative Joe Barton from Texas, was supported by almost all republicans and some moderate democrats in order to increase the export of US oil and gas worldwide and decrease the dependence of European allies to the United States on gas and oil import from Russia
On the other hand, far-left democrats aligned with President Obama in opposing the bill because of environmental and financial concerns tied to the exploitation of more natural resources and the raise of energy prices for US consumers.
The disagreement within assertive and "passive" politicians regarding Ukraine, Eastern Europe and Russia also concerns US Presidential Administration. On the one hand, President Obama and Defense Secretary John Kerry are reluctant to help support Ukraine militarily by sending lethal weapons to the Ukrainian army. Although Obama and Kerry provided crippling sanctions on Russia and provided non-lethal weapons to Ukraine, they opposed all space shield defensive programs that required the dislocation of permanent military bases and installations in Central Eastern Europe.
On the other hand, Defense Secretary Ash Carter, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Joseph Dunford, and former Chief of Staff of the Army Raymond Odierno publicly stated Russia to be the major existential threat to the United States and urged the Obama administration not to underestimate the aggressive behavior of Putin in Ukraine and Central Eastern Europe.
An important race for the geopolitical situation of Europe
By considering the division between assertive and passive candidates to US President and the disagreement within the Presidential administration regarding Ukraine and Central Eastern Europe, the election of the new President of the United States are deeply tied to the situation of Europe.
In case a fully assertive politician regarding Ukraine, as republicans Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz or Carly Fiorina, will win the presidential contest, a renewed assertive commitment of the United States to democracy, liberty and the respect of the rule of law in Europe, by strengthening NATO defense structures in Central Eastern Europe fist of all, is likely to occur.
If an "Ukraine friendly" democrat will win the presidential contest, the United States are likely to be fully committed into the Asia/Pacific, letting regional powers lied to the US, such as Poland, Egypt, Turkey and Israel, to face Russia in behalf of the whole Western community.
In case a "passive" candidate will become the next President of the United States, such as Sanders, O'Malley, Trump or Paul, Europe would face the worst scenario possible because of the total withdrawal of the US from any confrontation with Russia and defense strategy of the west.
Matteo Cazzulani, Strategy XXI
