Warsaw - The disagreement between Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko and Poland President Andrzej Duda on the participation of Poland in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia has been definitively amplified by some Polish media. However, the proposal regarding the participation of Poland in the peace talks along with Germany and France reflects a new era of the Polish-Ukrainian relationship.
According to international agencies, during a press conference after a urgent meeting with Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel and France President Francois Hollande on August 24, President Poroshenko stated the Normandy Format - in which only Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France are taking part - is the best choice for Ukraine in order to reach a peace agreement with Russia and implement the Minsk Agreements at the same time.
By his statement, President Poroshenko de facto rejected the request regarding the participation of Poland into the peace talks Polish President Duda publicly made the day before, according to a express request President Poroshenko made him during a phone call.
In particular, President Duda argued the Normandy Format is not effective in order to reach a peaceful solution of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. Moreover, along with the participation of Poland in the peace talks, Duda also urged the recovering of the Geneva Format, in which the United States and representatives of the European Union also take part along with the participants of the Normandy Format.
Although the Deputy Head of the Poroshenko Administration Konstiantyn Yelisieiev said Poland is going to be invited into the peace talks on September, the behavior of Poroshenko has been considered as a failure of the diplomatic initiative of Duda and a crisis of the traditionally tight relationship between Ukraine and Poland as well.
In reality, the statement of Poroshenko was not a denial, rather a diplomatic decision he was moved to make because of several reasons. First of all, Poroshenko needs to consider the opposition of Russia President Vladimir Putin to the participation of Poland in the peace talks.
Although Russia annexed Crimea, invaded Ukraine and is still militarily challenging the Ukrainian army in Donbas, Poroshenko always tried to let the dialogue with Putin open in order to avoid any further military penetration into Ukraine by Russia .
Moreover, Poroshenko has to maintain the relationships with Merkel and Hollande, who declared themselves to be against the enlargement of the Normandy Format to Poland, at a good level, in order not to loose support from the two representatives of the European Union within the peace talks.
Finally, since the Government of Polish PM Ewa Kopacz came into power, Poland disengaged from Ukraine by making a notable withdrawal of its diplomatic initiative toward Germany. Therefore, Ukraine no more considered PM Kopacz and former Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski as main partners of Kyiv within the European Union and NATO.
By his turn, President Duda is likely to continue supporting Ukraine. In fact, according to the far-sighting conception of the authors of the Parisian Kultura, the support to Ukraine is a traditional priority all Polish Presidents and PMs must, and did pursue, in order to ensure Polish national security and preserve Poland independence from any threats from Russia.
However, Duda demonstrated himself to be first of all committed to the realization of a Poland-led coalition of countries of Central Eastern Europe, in order to strengthen NATO presence in the Eastern flank of the Atlantic alliance and, in so doing, ensure the national security of NATO member states which are deeply worried about Russian warfare in Ukraine and Georgia.
In fact, Duda is recovering the Intermarium, the strategic conception the Leader of Poland during the interwar period Jozef Pilsudski and the former Poland President Lech Kaczynski have pursued. The Intermarium is a Poland-led defensive coalition of countries situated between the Baltic Sea the Black and the Adriatic Seas Pilsudski and Kaczynski conceived to protect Poland from the imperialistic aggression of USSR and Putin Russia respectively.
Putin warfare to divide Poland and Ukraine
The commitment to the participation of Poland in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia of Duda is not only a way to pursue the Kultura traditional conception, but, first of all, a way to strengthen the position of Poland within the international political area as the leading-country in Central Eastern Europe.
The contrast between Poroshenko and Duda is, so, only a temporary divergence of views which is not at all tied to any diplomatic crisis between Poland and Ukraine.
In fact, it is important to consider that both Poroshenko and Duda are called to play a role of high responsibility which requires patience, strategy and diplomacy - and first of all leadership, a quality both Poroshenko and Duda demonstrated to have.
At the same time, Polish-Ukrainian relationships are undoubtably evolving according to the geopolitical situation of nowadays. In fact, Russian warfare in Georgia, Crimea and Donbas and eventually in Transnistria has moved Poroshenko to make all the possible to maintain Germany and France on a neutral position - and no pro-Russian as many in Germany and France are urging.
By his part, facing Russia provocations in the Baltic Sea, the NATO permanent presence in the Eastern flank of the alliance is a goal Duda and its partners must achieve prior to lobby in favor of Poland participation in the peace talks and Ukraine integration into Europe.
Matteo Cazzulani
Strategy XXI
@MatteoCazzulani
