DIAGNOSIS
Ukraine has still oligarchonomics instead of economics with very pure activities of the Antitrust Agency. The intension of the new political leadership to transform oligarchonomics into plutocracy through preservation of economic and political monopolism. Unfortunately, they make the same failures, which were typical for all previous political forces.
EENERGY SECTOR IN TERMS OF WARFARE
Energy sector should ensure implementation of two main tasks:
1) To provide economics with all kinds of energy needed under normal and emergency circumstances.
2) To protect critical energy infrastructure, because at the peak of winter colds intentions to sabotage its functioning might take place.
3) The third task will become actual in a half of year after heating season and means creation of energy stocks for upcoming period.
The challenges to reforms of the energy sector are well known and arise from oligarchic groups through lobbying on each possible level. The President of Ukraine should decide here on preference – whether he will act as a public official or businessperson. The state needs a very responsible public official with strong political will and strategy of reforms.
The Stockholm arbitration proceeding is very important for Ukraine even in light of falling oil prices, because expected decision would change price formula settings and correct gas price to real market level instead of politically motivated rates and political factors.
Hybrid war started with trade blockade on August 14, 2013 and on February 20, 2014 military component was introduced because of the failure Yanukovich to fulfill all the obligations with regard to Putin.
V.Putin had paid to L.Kutchma with gas deals, having brought on the gas market RosUkrEnergo. Ukraine withdraw from its obligations towards NATO membership.
The year 2015 will become a peak period of the war. Second half of winter might be connected with introduction of energy weapon to the whole scale. Later on, it is not excluded that warfare will be spread to the Baltic States, Arctic and Kaliningrad oblast.
In 2015, Ukraine should pay more attention to biomass to become a resilient to energy supplies. Electricity will get more and more share on the energy market and Ukraine should create conditions for proper developments in own economics.
Hybrid peace is worse as hybrid war because frozen conflicts do not solve the problem of the peace in Europe; instead, they create preconditions for large-scale war similar to 1915.
Politicians in the EU and neighbouring countries are not strong enough to consider properly the situation and introduce effective preventive proactive measures to stop growing violence in Europe. Average citizens in Ukraine and the EU do much more, supporting decision making in the USA, providing Ukrainian army and volunteers with material, financial and moral support. They are the actual future of Europe.
