To: Council of the European Union, European Commission, European Parliament, governments of the EU and NATO member states, governments of the participant states of the Energy Community Treaty and the Eastern Partnership Program

OPEN LETTER

of the European experts, researchers, journalists and civil society activists

Nord Stream 2 – Russian “Trojan Horse” against European Security

We, experts, scientists, journalists and civil society activists of the European countries, are committing to uphold the peace, security and territorial integrity of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and each European country by all means.

We understand that project Nord Stream 2 undermines the European and Euro-Atlantic unity and is a major threat to the current European energy stability and security, and in future to the territorial integrity of European countries.

We strongly support measures of the U.S. and other states who oppose the project on compelling legal, economic, and political grounds.

We are using an opportunity of the international conference "Russian Neo-imperialism: Sources, genesis and consequences for the countries of South East Europe,” held on June 18, 2018 in Odesa, Ukraine, organized by the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” (Kiev, Ukraine) to make an open letter to the citizens of Europe to co-sign it.

“You get what you reward” - this is the most important thing to have in mind, while dealing with aggressive countries.

So far, Russia has been indirectly rewarded for aggressive actions against its neighbors – Moldova in 1992, Georgia in 2008, and Ukraine since 2014. Nowadays, after unlashing of aggression against Ukraine, killing 298 civilians in MH17 crash in the occupied Ukrainian territories, after its brutal aggression in Syria, Russia is concluding contracts for Nord Stream 2 and was rewarded by being able to organize the World Football Championship 2018.

The Russian politicians perceive and understand that they are rewarded for their aggressive behavior. This rewarding scheme will work until it turns out to the Russian world-wide aggression threatening to involve the whole world into a World War III.

To demonstrate futility and negative consequences of the Nord Stream 2, we draw attention to the following list of findings[1]:

·        The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project is primarily a political project aimed to advance one of the Kremlin’s prime goals: extending geo-strategic influence over Europe by dominating the European energy market.

• ·        The EU does not need more pipelines for Russian gas, as currently about 40 percent of Russia’s existing pipeline export capacities are idle.
• ·        Nord Stream 2 would increase Europe’s dependence on a single supplier (Russia) and concentrate 70-80 percent of Russian gas imports to Europe in one Kremlin-controlled route.
• ·        If completed, Nord Stream 2 would undermine EU unity, as the project seeks to favor some countries over others, amplifying Russia’s “divide and rule” approach to energy politics.
• ·        Rising gas prices in Europe make liquefied natural gas (LNG) more competitive to pipeline gas. However, the Nord Stream 2 would position Russia as Europe's main gas supplier and could stifle opportunities for non-Russian companies to export LNG to the EU. This would harm consumers and would expressly contradict the provisions of the Third Energy Package, in particular concerning diversified sources of gas.
• ·        The Nord Stream 2 project would undermine Energy Union established by the EU which is based on promoting a diversity of energy sources through extension of import routes. Russia seeks the opposite.
• ·        Gas from Nord Stream 2 will not necessarily be cheaper, as it would increase Gazprom’s a sole-source provider leverage over consuming countries. America’s allies in Central and Eastern Europe will be under the hardest hit as Gazprom will likely try to recuperate its investment by increasing gas prices for Central and Eastern European states, which are overly dependent on Russian gas: Poland, Baltic States, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Moldova, Serbia.
• ·        Transporting Russian gas through Germany to Central and Eastern Europe would reduce gas transport capacities for non-Russian gas from Western European regional gas markets and restrict market opportunities for companies delivering non-Russian gas.
• ·        Contrary to advocates of the Nord Stream 2, projected European gas demand increase is not a foregone conclusion. The EU’s energy consumption is actually expected to decrease by 11 percent by 2040 and a share of gas in Europe’s energy mix is projected to change only by 1 percent.
• ·        The Nord Stream 2 pipeline (along with the Turkish Stream pipeline across the Black Sea) will dramatically change the gas supply map of Europe through revoking Ukraine’s status of a major gas transit country and bypassing Central and Eastern Europe. This will leave Ukraine in a vulnerable international and financial position and encourage further Russian aggression against it, thus threatening European stability and preparing its next steps for the seizure of the EU countries.
• ·        Contrary to Gazprom's claims, Ukrainian Gas Transmission System is in the proper technical condition and has been able to withstand unregulated reductions of gas volumes and pressure on the Russian side.
• ·        If Nord Stream 2 is completed, Europe and Gazprom will lose the flexibility and spare capacity of the Ukrainian system and will likely have to invest more in storage for emergencies and peak demand. This may indirectly increase the cost of natural gas in Europe.
• ·        Nord Stream 2 poses a risk of environmental damage in the Baltic Sea, including a number of sites protected under the Natura 2000 program.

Nord Stream 2 is additional instrument of hybrid penetration of Russia into EU’s energy market to provide dominant position and monopoly for gas supply to Europe from the East. 

Not enough resistant position of the European Commission towards Nord Stream 2 ignores the presence of free capacities of Ukrainian Gas Transmission System and Art. 274 of Association Agreement between the European Union and its Member States, on the one part, and Ukraine, on the other part: “The Parties shall endeavor to facilitate the use of gas transmission infrastructure and gas storage facilities and shall consult or coordinate, as appropriate, with each other on infrastructure developments. The Parties shall cooperate on matters related to trade in natural gas, sustainability and security of supply. With a view to further integrate markets of energy goods, each Party shall take into account the energy networks and capacities of the other Party when developing policy documents regarding demand and supply scenarios, interconnections, energy strategies and infrastructure development plans.”

We address this letter to the EU institutions, governments and other organizations in member states of the EU and NATO, European and other companies with the demand not to support the Nord Stream 2 project with an ultimate goal to preserve the European unity and security.

SIGNATORIES:

• ·        Vencislav Bujić, President of Foundation SEAS (Serbian Euro Atlantic Cooperation), Serbia
• ·        Mykhailo M. Gonchar, Founder & President, Centre for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", Ukraine
• ·        Vitalii Martyniuk, Head of the International Programs, Centre for Global Studies "Strategy XXI," Ukraine
• ·        Volodymyr Kravchenko, columnist of the International Politics Department of the Dzerkalo Tyzhnia weekly, Ukraine
• ·        David Shahnazaryan, Chairman of the Centre for Legal and Political Studies "Concord", Armenia
• ·        Ivo Indzhev, Journalist, Writer, Blogger, Bulgaria
• ·        Yulia Tyshchenko, Head of the Democratic Processes Support Program, Ukrainian Center for Independent Political Research, Ukraine
• ·        Oleksandr Zakhariia, Head of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Transatlantic processes outlook NGO, Ukraine
• ·        Serhii Haiduk, Head of the Association of Veterans of the Ukrainian Navy, former commander of the Ukrainian Navy
• ·        Ruben Mehrabyan, Expert of the The Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs, Editor of Russian Version of Aravot site, Armenia
• ·        Dejan S. Miletić, President of the Center for Globalization Studies (CGS), Serbia
• ·        Andrei Sannikov, Head of “European Belarus” foundation, Belarus
• ·        Volodymyr Ohryzko, foreign minister of Ukraine 2007-2009, head of the Сentre for Russian Studies, Ukraine
• ·        Dzhyna Mindzhoraia, Head of Odesa Anti-corruption Centre “Civil conscience,” Ukraine
• ·        Andrii Chubyk, Executive Director of the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI,” Ukraine
• ·        Dr. Roman Yaremiichuk, Professor, active member of Taras Shevtchenko Sientific Community, laureate of the State Prize of Ukraine in the field of science and technology, Ukraine
• ·        Juraj Mesík, political analyst, futurologist, Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs, Slovakia
• ·        Valerii Borovyk, Сhairman of the Board of the New Energy of Ukraine Alliance, Ukraine 
• ·        Karel Hirman, energy expert, Slovakia
• ·        Fedor Gal, journalist, blogger, writer, the Czech Republic
• ·        Jakub Janda, Executive Director at European Values Think-Tank and Head of the Kremlin Watch Program, the Czech Republic
• ·        Liudmyla Verbytska, Founder and Chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian-Slovak Initiative, Slovakia 
• ·        Alla Yeriomenko, Editor of economic security section of the Dzerkalo Tyzhnia weekly, Ukraine
• ·        Sergiy Sapegin, Director of Psyche Scientific and Technical Centre, editor-in-chief of Terminal magazine
• ·        Murman Margvelashvili, Director of the Western Experience for Georgia Centre, Georgia
• ·        Dr. Sergiy Korsunsky, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Turkey (2008-2016), Director of Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine
• ·        Dr. Oleksandr Sukhodolya, Head of Energy Security Department of National Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukraine
• ·        Yaroslava Mishchenko, Observer in Ukrinform Agency, Ukraine
• ·        Alla Dubrovyk-Rokhova, Editor of the economic section of the Day newspaper, Ukraine 
• ·        Pawel Kost, Member of the Expert Board of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies (Kyiv, Ukraine); permanent observer on the Energetyka24.com (Warsaw, Poland)
• ·        Lenka Vich, Editor of the Ukrainian Journal, Ukrainianist, Czech Republic
• ·        Volodymyr Kopchak, Head of the South Caucasian branch of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies (Tbilisi), Ukraine
• ·        Dr. Zinovii Osinchuk, member of the Ukrainian Oil and Gas Academy, associate member of the Academy of mining sciences of Ukraine
• ·        Oksana Ishchuk, Analyst of the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI,” Ukraine
• ·        Mykhailo Samus, Deputy Director on the International Programs of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, Ukraine
• ·        Dr. Oleksandr Samarskii, Ambassador, Deputy Director of the Centre for Russian Studies, Ukraine
• ·        Dr. Alexander Duleba, Executive Director of Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association, Slovakia
• ·        Stukalenko Igor, Associate expert of the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, Ukraine
• ·        Valeriu Pasha, Expert of "WatchDog.MD" Community, Republic of Moldova
• ·        Veaceslav Ionita, expert Institut for Development and Social Initiatives Viitorul, Former Member of the Parliament of Moldova and Chairman of Parliamentary Committee, Republic of Moldova
• ·        Alyona Getmanchuk, Director of New Europe Center, Ukraine
•           Olena Snigyr, Senior Specialist of the Center for International Studies of Hennadiy Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine, Ukraine 
•            Hennadiy Maksak, Head of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism", Ukraine 
•           Nika Chitadze, Director of the Black Sea Region Geopolitical Research Center, Georgia 
•           Maksym Khylko, Chairman of the board of the East European Security Research Initiative Foundation, Ukraine
•           Christo Grozev, Senior Researcher, Risk Analysis Center, New Bulgarian University, Bulgaria
•          Dr. Vilius Ivanauskas, Chief Policy analyst, Eastern Europe Studies Centre, Lithuania 
•          Volodymyr Garazd, President of the Association "Energy Efficient Cities of Ukraine"
•          Dr. Frank Umbach, Research Director at the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS), King's College, Great Britain