MILAN - The proposal of recovering the ITGI pipeline that the Russian national energy major Gazprom made on February 24 is both a political and a tactical initiative aimed at endangering the security of the European Union by utilizing one of the most pro-Russian member states of the EU: Italy. On Wednesday, February 24, the head of Gazprom, Aleksey Miller, signed a memorandum that commits Russia to carry natural gas to Greece and Italy through the Black Sea. Representatives of the Italian energy company Edison and the Greek DEPA also signed the memorandum at a ceremony following a meeting between Mr. Miller and the Italian Minister of the Economic Development, Federica Guidi.
According to the memorandum, Gazprom, Edison and DEPA are now committed to recovering of the Interconnector Turkey Greece Italy -ITGI: a pipeline originally planed to pump 8 bcm of Azerbaijani natural gas per year from Greece to Italy. However, the ITGI has been rejected by the Shakh Deniz consortium to favor the Trans Adriatic Pipeline -TAP: a pipeline, backed by the European Commission, that the Shakh Deniz consortium selected as the route to carry 10 bcm of Azerbaijani gas per year into the market of the European Union.
By recovering the ITGI pipeline, Gazprom aims at opposing the realization of TAP, which Russia considers to be the main rival of the Southstream: a pipeline that Russia planed in order to carry Russian gas to Italy through the Black Sea and the Balkans. In fact, the itinerary of TAP is alternative to the one of Southstream: TAP is planed to carry Azerbaijani gas from Greece to Italy through Albania, whereas Southstream was projected from Bulgaria to Italy through Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary and Slovenia.
According to the plans of Gazprom, the ITGI could become a new version of Southstream backed by Italy, Greece and other pro-Russian member states of the European Union as Hungary. Recently, the Hungarian Authorities urged the European Commission to both authorize the realization of Southstream and cancel the economic sanctions that the European Union applied on Russia over military aggression to Ukraine.
Moreover, the ITGI could be a way to bypass Albania, a member state of NATO that actively participates in TAP and plays a fundamental role for the diversification of gas supplies of the European Union. It is also important to remember that, by carrying gas from Azerbaijan, the realization of TAP will vanish the need of a new pipeline to carry further natural gas to Europe, will it be from Russia, Azerbaijan nor any other gas suppliers.
On the paper, a Russian-backed ITGI could be accepted by the European Commission only whether Gazprom would have no stakes in the pipeline, as the EU Third Energy Package avoids the realization of pipelines owned by the same companies that will eventually trade natural gas through it. The predominant presence of Gazprom in the Southstream project as both the builder and the main stakeholder of the pipeline forced the European Union to reject it.
One more reason why Gazprom is now betting on the ITGI is strictly tied to Italian politics, where the Russian national energy major could count on the creation of a political coalition of backers of both Southstream and ITGI to force the Italian Government to officially back the renewed version of the ITGI.
Gazprom has excellent ties with Silvio Berlusconi, the leader of the main party of the center-right field within the Italian politics Go Italy. In 2009, while acting as the PM of Italy, Berlusconi agreed with Putin the realization of Southstream. Previously, in 2005 Mr. Berlusconi even backed the realization of the Blue Stream pipeline from Russia to Turkey.
In addition to the Go Italy party, Southstream is backed by the Northern League, a far right wing party whose leader, Matteo Salvini, assertively lobbies the Russian interests at both the Italian and the European Parliament. The populist Five Stars Movement, whose members openly support Russian illegal annexation of Crimea, is another party Gazprom can count on in order to force its energy interests in both Italy and the European Union.
Backers of the ITGI are also MPs of the ruling Democratic Party who pertain to the internal stream headed by Pierluigi Bersani who, as the Minister of the Economic Development, officially backed the ITGI in 2007 as a project aimed at carrying to Italy gas from Azerbaijan and diversify Italy energy supplies in so doing. It is also important to notice that some MPs of the Democratic Party are often influenced by the Italian national energy concern ENI, which maintains tight business relationships with Gazprom with respect to both Southstream and, through its daughter-company Saipem, Nordstream.
The renewal of the ITGI could endanger the realization of TAP, although the supporters of the Trans Atlantic Pipeline are still likely to keep the majority of seats within the Italian parliament. In addition to the acting PM Matteo Renzi -who is the leader of the Democratic Party and publicly supported the necessity to diversify Italy's gas supplies- TAP is also supported by the former PM Mario Monti, who officially supported TAP as the head of the Italian Government, and his centrist Civic Choice Party: a Junior coalition member of the Democratic Party.
On the contrary, another coalition partner of the Democratic Party within the Government of PM Renzi, the New Center Right, is acting ambiguously with respect to energy policy: on the one hand, the members of the New Center Right backed the TAP. On the other hand, the party of Deputy PM Angelino Alfano backs Russia and urges to recover a cooperation with Moscow despite Russian illegal annexation of Crimea and occupation of Donbas.
Moscow wants to raise concurrence between Rome and Germany over Russian has supplies
There is one more reason why Gazprom tries to recover the ITGI. By engaging Italy to the realization of a pipeline planed to carry Russian natural gas into the European market, Russia wants to move Germany and other EU member states to support the realization of the extension of the Nordstream pipeline more staunchly than they are doing today.
The Nordstream pipeline was realized in 2012 on the seabed of the Baltic Sea to carry Russian natural gas from Russia directly to Germany, both raising the quantity of Russian delivered into the European market and bypassing Ukraine and some member states of the EU, such as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonian, in so doing.
An extension of Nordstream has been planed on August 2015 by Gazprom along with the Dutch energy major Shell, German E.on and Wintershall, as well as French Engie. However, the European Commission has repeatedly rejected the project as it does not respect the EU Third Energy Package.
Moreover, European Commission Vice President Maros Ševčovič said the extension of Nordstream would increase the energy dependence of EU on Russia. The Presidents of Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia, Croatia and the Baltic States denounced the Nordstream is a political project of Russia aimed at breaking EU internal solidarity with respect to energy and foreign policy issues.
Both the extension of the Nordstream and the renewal of the ITGI are energy projects aimed at realizing precise political goals with the help of countries where Russian lobbyists are being playing a very assertive role.
On the one hand, Russia tries to maintain Gazprom's predominance within the energy market of the European Union by lobbying in Germany the extension of the Nordstream.
On the other, Moscow tries to open a breach in the "southern front" by forcing a new version of the Southstream in Italy, where pro-Russian parties are ready to heavily campaign the realization of the ITGI as a project necessary for the energy security of Italy.
Matteo Cazzulani
Strategy XXI
@MatteoCazzulani
