NOMOS: Energy and policy contexts
Express–analysis of the current situation in Ukraine and around it
№2, 4 December 2013
Russia boosts a scenario of rapid signing of Agreement on strategic partnership with Ukraine. President of Ukraine in his interview on December 3rd told that: «an arrangement with Russian government exists to sit down at the negotiating table already this week and to initiate this process. We are aware of all the subjects, we know each other very well, all our working groups have been cooperating in all directions long ago, and we need not much time to understand each other». President mentioned that such negotiations have been already lasting for year and a half.
It is worth to pay attention that Russia seeks to set a control over the leading Ukrainian industry assets with the help of agents of influence in the Ukrainian government. This is evidenced by urgently organized on December 2nd by Deputy Prime Minister Y. Boyko of a “promotional tour” for the Russian Deputy Prime Minister D. Rogozyn to the main enterprises of defense–industrial complex. They have visited two leading shipbuilding plants in Mykolaiv (JSC «Chorrnomorsky Shipyard» and «61 Сommunards Shipyard»), space–rocket enterprises «Yuzhny Machine-Building Plant» in Dnipropetrovsk and «Antonov aviation scientific–technical complex» in Kyiv. As outcome of the visit to Ukraine and meeting with M. Azarov on December 3rd D. Rogozin said that in the near future a decree of Russia’s president will be issued on the establishment of a united Rocket and Space Corporation.
At the same time Kremlin has given approval to Gazprom on respite of Naftogaz’s debts payment. Payment for gas consumed in fourth quarter will be carried out in spring 2014. August debts of $ 765 million will be settled soon.
NOTA BENE! On December 2nd, Russian delegation headed by President Vladimir Putin visited Armenia. Armenian government passed to Gazprom last 20% shares in the joint venture "Armrosgazprom", which is responsible for gas supply to the entire country. In exchange, Armenia received gas price of $189 per thousand cubic meters during 2014-2018. “Putin’s visit to Yerevan has become a confirmation that Russia can solve easy on the language of blackmail any questions..." - said one of the leaders of the opposition party "Heritage" Armen Martirosyan to Deutsche Welle.
Conclusion 1. Yanukovich’s words indicate that either President and Ukrainian government have prepared the “21st November U-turn” (decision of the government not to sign AA) and consciously deceived the EU about the intention to sign AA or a fact of slow negotiation process was just used for the accelerated transition of the ruling regime to the Customs Union format integration under the dictatorship of Russia after meeting in Sochi.
Conclusion 2. It is not excluded, that at the President’s level a decision have already been taken about the transfer of the leading enterprises of defense–industrial complex of Ukraine to Russia. This is one of preconditions proposed by V.Putin to reconsider (but not approve the positive decision!) in Moscow about gas price reduction for Ukraine. Thus, the Kharkiv agreements scenario of 2010 repeats.
NOTA BENE! «Rosbalt» agency: In 2014, health care [of Russia – our note] will get less by 44 billion rubles, education less by 88 billion rubles., but military spendings will grow by almost 391 billion rubles ... The growth of the military budget and the policy of investments into the defense complex may have the only rational explanation : the Russian defense industry has got the role of locomotive that should rescue the entire economy of the country. More details: http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2013/11/25/1203513.html
Conclusion 3. For utilization of additional budget funds in the defense industry Russia requires industrial facilities to accommodate the military orders on them. It needs capacities of Ukrainian defense and industrial complex, wants to get an entire control over them and prevent the entry of Ukraine into hostile to Russia (as it says) alliances - NATO and the EU.
Conclusion 4. If the decision to transfer the aforementioned industrial assets of Ukraine to Russian companies will be accepted, it will mean that Russia will require not only Ukraine's accession to the CU, but joining the CSTO.
Conclusion 5. Perhaps we should expect the arrival of the next Russian delegation to discuss the transfer of leading energy engineering companies (JSC Frunze Sumy Scientific and Production Assotiation, Kharkiv «Turboatom», Mykolaiv "Zarya - Mashproject", etc.) and the transfer of Ukraine's GTS to Gazprom.
Conclusion 6. Negotiations with the EU, continuation of which was announced by M.Azarov, will not have any perspective under such tendencies. Russia makes preventive steps, forcing Ukraine to hand over strategic assets. Officially, the Ukrainian side will continue to push forward the Kremlin’s directive of inclusion of Russia in negotiations process.
NOTA BENE! "We have agreed with Russia on recovery of three–side cooperation format. The EU has to consider the terms that Russia makes. We have to reconcile it - said Azarov from the tribune of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.
Сonclusion 8. The EU policy toward Ukrainian issue is doomed to fail if Brussels does not resort to harsher influence on Russia. Under these circumstances, only the U.S. and NATO can make clumsy bureaucracy of the EU to act more rapidly. Option of a harder influence on Russia we proposed earlier: http://geostrategy.org.ua/ua/analitika/item/237-es-–-rosiya-vidpovisti-ne-mozhna-ignoruvati
