Mykhailo Gonchar: “Gazprom” in expectation of the directives from the Kremlin to unleash the 3rd gas crisis

Mykhailo Gonchar: “Gazprom” in expectation of the directives from the Kremlin to unleash the 3rd gas crisis

The coming days will demonstrate whether the Kremlin decides on giving out the Directive to "Gazprom" for provoking 3rd gas crisis. 

The weather looks quite favorable for this: http://www.dw.com/en/several-deaths-reported-as-cold-weather-grips-europe/a-37049560 

There are many enough propaganda "predictions" in PutinoMedia that Ukraine is about to begin gas siphoning from transit flows.

"Gazprom" even decided on a risky experiment, namely use of "Nord stream" with an overload: +10% of its nominal capacity (of course, this is thanks to the "gift" from the European Commission - resolution to use 90% of OPAL gas pipeline capacity). All this is done in order to stop gas transit through Ukraine at "Time "X" (when "Gazprom" receives instructions from the Kremlin).

But, the Arctic air masses are moving pretty quickly to the East, weakening their affect on Europe, and causing troubles to Russia, as you can see from my selection of meteo maps with a forecast of temperatures across Russia in the next three days compared to today.

 

This means that "Gazprom" can be in the position 5 years' standing: the end of January - beginning of February 2012, when it was not able to meet the needs of foreign consumers during peak growth of consumption in Russia.

Despite Miller's propaganda bravado about unprecedented gas volumes injected into the system, it may happen gas shortage for all consumers at the peak of consumption. At that, the priority will be given to meet Russian internal demand, and Europe can partly be cut off from gas supply by means of stopping transit through Ukraine under the artificial pretext of "gas theft", because it is "too little gas" in Ukrainian UGSs.

"Gazprom" will not decide on a crisis scenario without a Directive from the Kremlin because it has maximum possible earnings now. (Probably, Russians took into account the consequences of the "experiment" on the Kremlin's order of January-March 2015, when they minimized gas deliveries to Europe to cut off "reverse": gas supply from the EU to Ukraine. The "experiment" gave the opposite result -5 billion USD of lost revenue).

So, "Gazprom" is waiting for the instructions from the commanidng "gas-botox substance" of the Kremlin

 

 

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